消费补贴对新兴科技产业成长影响的仿真分析——以生物柴油产业为例  

Simulation Analysis on Influence of Consumption Subsidy on Growth of Emerging Scientific & Technological Industry——A Case Study of Biodiesel Industry

作　　者：毕超[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《产业经济评论》2016年第5期56-69,共14页Review of Industrial Economics

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(2014M562520XB)"中国战略性新兴产业协同演化成长机制与政策选择研究";中央高校基本科研业务费项目"市场设计理论及其实践应用研究"的阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文运用"历史友好"建模仿真方法,以中国生物柴油产业为例,构建了新兴科技产业成长的协同演化模型,并仿真分析了消费补贴时限、补贴时点及补贴强度对产业成长的影响。研究发现:(1)产业整体亏损状态下,单一的长期消费补贴对产业成长影响不大,消费补贴政策应与亏损补贴政策搭配使用;(2)只有当新兴科技产业成长恰好处于盈亏临界点时,单期消费补贴才会有效促进产业成长;(3)连续多期的消费补贴有助于加快产业成长,但是同样的补贴期数下,补贴强度的增加短期可能会加快产业成长,长期却可能导致产业衰退。因此,消费补贴政策的制定一定要与具体产业的发展实际相结合。Based on history-friendly method for modeling and simulation, and make biodiesel industry as an example, this paper constructs an analysis framework of the influence of consumption subsidy on growth of emerging scientific ＆technological industry from co-evolutionary perspectives, and makes a simulation analysis on influence of subsidy duration, time point, and intensity on growth of emerging scientific ＆technological industry. The results show that （1） under loss making status, single long term consumption subsidy policy has little effects on the growth of emerging industry; （2） only when the stage of industry growth is closed to breakeven point, single-period consumption policy could promote the growth of scientific ＆technological industry effectively; and （3） continuous multi-period consumption policy helps to speed up the growth of scientific ＆technological industry, but the increasing of subsidy strength may cause to industry recession in the long term, though it helps to accelerate the growth of emerging industry. Therefor the formulation of the consumption subsidy policy must be combined with the actual development of the specific industry.

关 键 词：消费补贴 产业成长 协同演化 历史友好 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济] F812.45