基于VAR模型的海港对腹地影响实证研究:以连云港港为例  

An Empirical Analysisof Harbor on Hinterland Regional Based on VAR Model:A Case Study of Lianyungang Harbor

作　　者：杨留星 田贵良[2] 王珏[3] Yang Liuxing Tian Guiliang Wang Jue(School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 School of Management, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098 Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]河海大学商学院,南京210098 [3]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2016年第9期250-259,共10页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271202);中国科学院青年创新促进会;中国科学院国家数学与交叉科学中心

摘　　要：本文在分析海港对腹地区域经济的直接、间接和诱发作用的基础上,将海港作为区域经济系统的一个变量,研究了港口对区域产业的成本节约效应、产业集聚效应、产业协作效应以及关联产业诱发效应,从整体上刻画了海港对区域经济的作用机理。并以连云港为例,选取连云港港货种吞吐量与其腹地GDP、就业人数,建立向量自回归VAR模型,基于Granger检验分析上述两组变量的因果关系。研究表明:海港对腹地区域经济发展作用具有明显的阶段性特点,当前连云港港对腹地经济与就业的拉动效用尚处于初级阶段。在上述结论的基础上,分析了主要原因并对港口及其经济腹地的发展提出了相应政策建议。This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the direct, indirect and inducing effect that a harbor acts on the regional economy of its hinterland, and on this basis explores the effect of the regional industry cost saving, the effect of industrial clustering, the effect of industry synergy, and the inducing effect of related industries, with the harbor as a regional economic system variable to discuss the mech- anism of how a harbor acts on the regional economy. Cargo throughput of Lianyungang Port and the GDP and number of jobs of its hinter- land are chosen to establish vector autoregressive VAR （2） model for regression analysis, and causality of the two sets of variables is analyzed based on Granger test. The result shows that Lianyungang Port is still in its infancy development stage, without playing its full role in boosting the hinterland economy. At last, the policy recommendations are given for promoting the development of Lianyungang Port and its hinterland economy.

关 键 词：海港 腹地区域经济 作用机理 VAR GRANGER检验 

分 类 号：F552.6[经济管理—产业经济] F127