公路运营车辆荷载极值的预测方法比较研究  

Comparison and Study on Prediction Method of Highway Operating Vehicle Load Extremum

作　　者：袁伟璋 黄海云[1] 张俊平 尹兴[1] 刘泽戈 

机构地区：[1]广州大学土木工程学院,广东广州510006 [2]广东省交通职业技术学院,广东广州510170

出　　处：《城市道桥与防洪》2016年第10期140-143,18,共4页Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51278134);教育部博士点基金项目(20114410110003);广东省交通运输厅科技资助项目(201402022)

摘　　要：为了研究桥梁结构在服役期间要承受的最大车辆荷载的预测方法,根据广东某高速公路3万多组货车的动态称重数据,采用对数正态分布模型,基于极值理论的POT模型和次序统计量模型,拟合运营车辆荷载的尾部分布,据此模型来预测未来两年可能出现的车辆荷载极值,并与相应实测数据进行对比验证,结果 POT模型和对数正态分布的预测值与实测数据相近,但由于对数正态分布存在理论缺陷,最终得出了POT模型更适用于车辆荷载极值预测分析的结论。In order to study the prediction method of bridge structure to bear the maximum vehicle load during service period,according to the dynamic weighting data of more than 30 000 group trucks on an expressway of Guangdong, the logarithmic normal distribution model, the POT model based on extreme value theory and the order statistics model are used to fit the tail distribution of operating vehicle load. Based on this model, the article predicts the vehicle load extremum possibly in the next two years, and compares to validate with the corresponding measured data. The results show that the predicted values of POT model and logarithmic normal distribution are close to the measured data. Finally, POT model is more suitable for the prediction and analysis! of vehicle load extremum due to the existence of the theoretical defects of logarithmic normal distribution.

关 键 词：车辆荷载 极值理论 POT模型 次序统计量模型 对数正态分布 

分 类 号：U441.2[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]