变化条件下常德市降水气温特征分析  

Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Annual Precipitation and Mean Temperature in Changde City under Changing Environment

作　　者：黄济琛 陆宝宏[1,2] 徐玲玲 侯盼[1] 钱纯纯 徐伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [3]江苏省水利工程科技咨询有限公司,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水文》2016年第5期85-91,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(NSFC-50979023);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201201026);江苏省高校研究生科研创新计划(KYZZ_0144)

摘　　要：基于1968-2012年常德站降水量及平均气温资料,采用一元线性回归、九点二次平滑、MannKendall检验、Yamamoto法、Morlet小波分析研究了常德市降水量和气温序列的趋势、突变、周期特征,运用R/S分析法计算得Hurst指数预测了两者未来的变化趋势。结果表明,近45年常德市年降水量呈略微上升趋势,未发生突变,降水序列存在6a、15a和28a三个周期,在未来年降水量有增加趋势;近45年常德市年平均气温呈明显升高趋势（显著性水平α=0.01）,在1994年发生突变,气温序列存在28a的主周期,在未来年平均气温有升高趋势。Based on the precipitation and mean temperature series in Changde City from 1968 to 2012, one -dimensional linear regression, Nonuple -Quadratic -Smooth filters, Mann -Kendall test, Yamamoto method and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the trend, abrupt change, periodicity of precipitation and temperature series, and then Hurst index were calculated using R/S analysis method to do some prediction of the change trend. The results show that the annual precipitation have a slightly increasing trend, no abrupt change was found in this series; it has 3 periods of 6, 15 and 28 years, and the precipitation will increase in the future; while the annual mean temperature appeared significantly rising trend at the 0.01 significance level, the abrupt change happened in 1994; temperature series have a primary period of 28 years ,and the temperature will rise in the future.

关 键 词：降水 气温 常德市 趋势 Yamamoto法 MORLET小波 HURST指数 

分 类 号：P468.02[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]