新疆精河径流变化及其原因分析  

Analysis of Runoff Variation and Its Causes in Jinghe Basin, Xinjiang

作　　者：苏向明[1,2] 刘志辉[2,3,4] 魏天峰 张波[1,2] 郭小云[1,2] 聂敏[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学教育部绿洲生态重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [4]干旱半干旱区可持续发展国际研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《水文》2016年第5期92-96,91,共6页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(41130531);水利部公益性行业科研专项(201301103)

摘　　要：利用1959-2012年精河出山口气温、降水、径流数据,对近54年的径流量特征变化进行统计分析、距平分析,采用Mann-Kendall法对天然径流进行检验,并对降水、气温、人口、工业、第一产业等影响因素进行主成分分析。结果表明：（1）精河地区的降水量和温度的变化趋势一致,均为上升趋势。径流量稳定,趋势线为几近平行于X轴的直线,斜率为0.001;（2）径流突变年为1988年,通过0.01的显著性检验,从1999年以后呈显著上涨趋势。近54年的精河径流距平变化趋势大体分为两个阶段,1958-1966年波动幅度较小,1966-2012年波动幅度明显增大;（3）对影响精河径流的几个影响因子进行主成分分析得出,人为因素对于径流的影响比较大,贡献率达到48.98%,远高于其他因子。The statistic and anomaly analysis of the runoff characteristic variations in recent 54 years by using the data of the temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Jinghe River mouth from 1959 to 2012. The Mann-Kendall was used to test the natural runoff, and to analyze the factors of precipitation, temperature, population, industry, principal industry. The results show that （1） There are rising trends of the precipitation and temperature changes in the Jinghe River Basin. The runoff is stable, the trend line is almost parallel to X axis of the linear slope of 0.001. （2） The runoff mutated point appears in 1988, passing 0.01significance test, and there is a significant upward trend after 1999. The runoff anomaly change in recent 54 years can be divided into two stages： smaller change range from 1958 to 1966, greater change range from 1966 to 2012. （3） The analysis of the impactfactors show that the influence of the human activities on the runoff is great, with contribution rate of 48.98 percent, which is much higher than other factors.

关 键 词：精河 MANN-KENDALL检验 突变点检验 主成分分析 径流 

分 类 号：P332[天文地球—水文科学]