我国水污染与居民健康的灰色关联度分析——基于我国肿瘤登记地区的数据  

Grey Relational Analysis on Association Between Water Pollution and Resident Health in China:Based on Data of China Cancer Registries

作　　者：张荣艳[1] 王爱苹[1] 唐风军[1] Zhang Rongyan Wang Aiping Tang Fengjun(Information Engineering College,Huanghe Science and Technology College,Zhengzhou 450063, Chin)

机构地区：[1]黄河科技学院信息工程学院,郑州450063

出　　处：《河南科学》2016年第10期1728-1734,共7页Henan Science

基　　金：河南省教育厅自然科学基金项目(16B110007)

摘　　要：基于2005—2012年中国肿瘤登记地区的数据,采用灰色关联分析方法,计算了3种水污染物与4种消化系统癌症发病率和死亡率的综合关联度,并对水污染物致癌症死亡的潜伏期作了定量分析.研究结果表明:1我国居民4种消化道癌症发病及死亡率与氨氮排放量的综合关联度最大;23种水污染物与胃癌、结直肠肛门癌的发病及死亡率的综合关联度男性比女性的高;33种水污染物与4种消化道癌症发病率中关联度最大的是食管癌,3种水污染物与4种消化道癌症死亡率中关联度最大的是胃癌;4废水排放量导致居民胃癌、肝癌死亡的潜伏期均为4年,结直肠肛门死亡的潜伏期为0年,废水排放量导致男性食管癌死亡的潜伏期为4年,女性为3年;化学需氧量导致居民4种消化道癌症死亡的潜伏期均为4年;氨氮排放量导致胃癌、肝癌、食管癌的死亡潜伏期均为1年,氨氮排放量导致男性结直肠肛门癌死亡的潜伏期为1年,女性为0年.Based on data of China Cancer Registries during 2005-2012,the grey correlation analysis method was applied to calculate correlation degree between the morbidity,mortality of 4 kinds of digestive system cancer and 3 kinds of different water pollutants,and the latent period of cancer induced by water pollution was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed：①the maximum synthetic association degree of the morbidity and mortality of 4 kinds of digestive system cancers and 3 kinds of water pollutants was ammonia nitrogen;②relational analysis of water pollution and morbidity and mortality of male stomach cancer,colorectum cancer were larger than female;③the maximum relational analysis of water pollution and morbidity of cancer was oesophagus cancer ,and the maximum grey relational analysis of water pollution and mortality of cancer was stomach cancer;④the stomach cancer,liver cancer,colorectum cancer latent periods of wastewater were 4 years,4 years and 0 year respectively,and the male and female oesophagus cancer latent periods of wastewater were 4 years and 3 years respectively;the 4 digestive system cancers latent periods of chemical oxygen demand were all 4 years;the stomach cancer,liver cancer,oesophagus cancer latent periods of ammonia nitrogen were all 1 year,and the male and female colorectum cancer latent periods of wastewater were 1 year and 0 year respectively.

关 键 词：水污染 居民健康 灰色关联度 潜伏期 

分 类 号：R123[医药卫生—环境卫生学]