交通运输互联互通对中越老缅贸易的影响  

The effect of traffic transportation interconnection on the trade of China,Vietnam,Laos and Myanmar

作　　者：雷定猷[1] 曾徵芳 程杨[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2016年第10期2064-2069,共6页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71371193)

摘　　要：明确中越老缅交通运输互联互通内涵,基于2000-2013年我国和越老缅国家交通和经济的数据,在引力模型的基础上构建边境效应衍生模型,分析交通运输互联互通对中越老缅贸易的影响;在边境效应衍生模型的基础上,进一步引入交通基础设施平均密度、运输机制互联互通程度、旅客运输互联互通程度和边界接壤程度参数,得出具体模型,运用Stata12.0求解模型。研究结果表明:1)交通基础设施的改善、运输机制互联互通的推进、旅客运输互联互通的增强都对中越老缅进出口贸易具有重要的正向影响;2)进口效应值大于出口效应值,表明我国对越老缅国家以出口贸易为主,存在着明显的贸易顺差,我国调整相关的贸易策略,降低贸易顺差。This paper defines the traffic and transportation interconnection of China, Vietnam, Laos and Myan-mar, and selects the 2000 to 2013 international panel data of four countries. Based on the gravity model, it con-structs the derived bounder effect model, which quantitative analyzes impact of traffic and transportation intercon-nection on trade of four countries. On the basis of the derived bounder effect mode. This paper establish a specific model, and further introduces four parameters such as average density of transport infrastructure, the degree of mechanisms interconnection, passenger transport interconnection level and border interconnection level, and solves the model using Stata12.0. The results show that：1） the improvement of transportation infrastructure, the promotion of the mechanism interconnection, and the enhancement of passenger transport interconnection have important positive effects on the trade between China, Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar;2） the import effect value is higher than the export effect value. It is also shows that the trade between China and the other three countries fo-cuses on export trade, which exists a significant trade surplus. China need to adjustment its related trade strategy to reduce trade surplus.

关 键 词：交通运输互联互通 引力模型 边境效应衍生模型 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程]