气候变化下兰江流域未来径流的变化规律  

Study on Future Changes of Lanjiang Basin Runoff under Climate Change

作　　者：富强[1] 马冲[2] 张徐杰[1] 许月萍[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州310014 [2]浙江大学建造工程学院水文与水资源工程研究所,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第5期22-27,共6页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51379183);科技部国际合作项目(2010DFA24320)

摘　　要：为了研究气候变化对径流变化的影响,选择了浙江省钱塘江流域支流兰江作为研究区域,以1971—2000年为基准期,以2071—2100年为预测期,结合统计降尺度方法的LARS-WG天气发生器和CMIP5模型,利用分布式水文模型SWAT,计算和分析了兰江流域未来径流可能变化的情况。研究结果表明,在气候变化影响下,兰江流域未来的径流总量增加的概率较大,同时夏季发生洪水的频率也将有所增加。In order to analyze the change of climate on runoff, taking Lanjiang tributary of Zhejiang Qiantang River as a study area, se-lected a reference period from 1971 to 2000 , selected a forecast period from 2017 to 2100 , combined with LARS-WG and CMIP5 models of statistical downscaling methods, a distributed hydrological model of SWAT is used to calculate and analyze the possible changes of future runoff in Lanjiang basin. The results show that under the influence of climate change,it is very likely that the total amount of future runoff in Lanjiangbasin will increase, and at the same time the frequency of summer floods will also increase.

关 键 词：气候变化 CMIP5 径流变化 LARS-WG SWAT 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]