中国石化产业产能过剩影响因素的量化研究——以石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业为例  

Quantitative Research on Influencing Factors of Industrial Capacity for China Petrochemical Industry——Based on Oil Processing,Coking and Nuclear Fuel Processing

作　　者：刘峻峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2016年第11期1302-1307,共6页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：教育部省部共建人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"我国渔业经济可持续发展研究--以辽东湾为例"(编号:13JJD790042);辽宁省教育厅科学研究一般项目"辽宁省海洋渔业生态环境修复模式研究:以海洋牧场为例"(编号:W2014133)";美国国家地理项目"基于3S技术的辽东湾滨海湿地时空演化及对生物多样性的影响:以候鸟保护为例"(编号:GEFC19-14)"

摘　　要：采用VAR和集成预测模型,以石油加工、炼焦和核燃料加工业为例,分析了中国石化产业产能过剩的影响因素,并对产能利用率做出了预测。结果表明:中国石化产业产能过剩是各种因素共同作用的结果,固定资产投资过量、产业集聚现象是化工产业产能过剩的两个主要因素,前者表现为体制性产能过剩,后者表现为结构性产能过剩;一般而论,化工产业生产对市场的依存度相对较低,过旺的市场需求可能会导致供给侧增加产能,继而引发产能过剩;短期内,我国石化产业可能会呈现出持续的产能过剩趋势,应引起有关方面的重视。Using vector autoregressive model and integrated forecasting model were constructed, taking oil processing, coking ＆ nuclear fuel pro- cessing as an example, analyzed the influence factors of China＇s petrochemical industry overcapacity, and the capacity utilization rate was predicted. The results showed that overcapacity in the Chinese petrochemical industry was the result of interaction of various factors, the fixed asset investment excessive and the phenomenon of industrial agglomeration were the two main factors of ovcrcapacity in the chemical industry, the former showed system capacity in excess, the latter was for the excess capacity structural. The chemical industry production of market dependence degree was low, excess de- mand in the market may cause an increase in the supply side capacity, then lead to excess production capacity. In the short term, China＇s petrochemi- cal industry may appear to be persistent over capacity surplus trend.

关 键 词：石化产业 VAR模型 集成预测 产能过剩 

分 类 号：F426.72[经济管理—产业经济]