金融周期与经济周期--基于中国的实证研究  

Financial Cycle and Economic Cycle: Evidence from China

作　　者：马勇[1,2] 冯心悦 田拓[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]中国财政金融政策研究中心,国际货币研究所 [3]美国约翰·霍普金斯大学

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2016年第10期3-14,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：北京市哲学社会科学基金项目(16LJB006)成果

摘　　要：本文通过构建综合性的金融周期指数,对金融周期和经济周期之间的关系进行了系统的实证分析,并在此基础上探讨了金融周期、货币周期和信贷周期在经济周期中的不同影响和作用机制。实证结果表明,金融周期不仅与经济周期密切相关,而且对经济周期具有良好的预测能力。同时,与传统的货币周期和信贷周期相比,金融周期变化不仅成为货币周期、信贷周期、金融周期和经济周期的关键驱动因素,而且成为宏观经济波动的重要来源。本文的实证分析结论不仅使得"金融-实体经济"内生关联的命题得到了进一步验证,同时也为后续同时关注金融和实体经济稳定的政策实践提供了部分理论依据。By constructing a comprehensive financial cycle index, this paper analyzes the relationship between financial cyele and business eycle, and discusses the links, interactions and transmission mechanisms between and among the financial cycle, monetary cycle and credit cycle. The empirical results show that the financial cycle has a elose relationship with the business cycle and plays a good leading role in forecasting fulure economic activity. At the same time, eompared with the monetary cycle and credit cycle, the financial eycle not only serves as a main driving force of the monetary, the credit and the business cycle, but also becomes an important source of the business cycle fluctuations. Our paper provides new evidence for the financial-real nexus and lays theoretical foundation for the policy praetice which aims to ensure both financial and economic stability.

关 键 词：金融周期 经济周期 货币周期 信贷周期 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]