南京市近60年气候变化特征分析  

Analysis on climatic variation characteristics of Nanjing city During the past 60 years

作　　者：王晓莹[1,2] 杨丹[3] 邵银龙 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]国网电力科学研究院南京南瑞集团公司,南京210003 [3]水利部水文局,北京100053 [4]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州310014

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2016年第4期119-124,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

摘　　要：掌握南京市气候变化特征,对指导当地工农业生产和生活具有重要意义。基于南京站1955-2013年逐日降水和气温数据,采用Db3小波分解法、Man-Kendall法、Morlet小波分析法和R/S分析法分析了南京市年最大日降水量、年降水日数、年最高日气温和年最低日气温的变化趋势、周期特征和长程相依性。结果表明:年最大日降水量、年降水日数、年最高日气温和年最低日气温分别呈增加、减少、增加和增加变化,未来仍将持续这一变化趋势,各指数的变化主周期依次为7、22、12和12 a。上述变化表明,南京市年内旱涝事件发生机率可能将会同步增加,需要有关部门予以高度重视。To master the climatic variation characteristics of Nanjing has very important for guiding the local industrial and agricultural production and daily life. According to the daily data of precipitation and temperature of Nanjing station from 1955 to 2013, the paper used Db3 wavelet decomposition method, Man -Kendall method, Morlet wavelet analysis method and R/S analysis method to analyze the change tendency, periodic characteristics and long memory＇s property of the maximum daily precipitation, the days of precipitation in the year, the maximum daily temperature and minimum daily temperature in a year. The results show that the maximum daily precipitation, the days of precipitation, the maximum daily temperature and minimum daily temperature in a year is respectively showing an increasing, decreasing, increasing and increasing tendency now and in the future. Meanwhile, the main periods of before - mentioned indexes are 7, 22, 12 and 12 years respectively. These changes show that occurrence probability of drought and flood events in Nanjing will increase,which needs to attach great importance for the relevant departments.

关 键 词：降水 气温 变化特征 南京市 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P332.1[天文地球—水文科学]