中国居民生活电力消费影响因素研究  

A Study on Influencing Factors of China Residential Electricity Consumption

作　　者：汝醒君[1] 王聪颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《杭州电子科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第5期14-19,共6页Journal of Hangzhou Dianzi University：Social Sciences

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点课题(16NDJC002Z);浙江省教育厅科研项目(Y201533690);杭州电子科技大学科研启动基金(KYS035614025)

摘　　要：基于状态空间模型定量分析中国1985-2013年的家庭人口规模、居民收入水平、居民电价三个变量对居民生活电力消费的动态影响。研究结果显示:居民电价对生活电力消费的变弹性系数为负值,对生活电力需求有削弱作用,虽然居民电价弹性系数绝对值呈下降趋势,目前城镇居民生活电力消费电价弹性仍是乡村居民的2-3倍以上;居民收入和家庭人口规模对生活电力消费均存在促进作用。居民收入对生活电力消费的弹性系数最大,且呈逐步增长趋势,是影响生活电力消费的主要因素。最后,本文基于构建的状态空间模型和国家经济发展目标及短期社会发展状况,预测2020年我国居民电力消费将比2013年增长至少44.96%。The dynamic effects on the residential electricity consumption of the following three variables related with the household population size,the residential income level and the residential electricity prices from1985- 2013 in China are analyzed based on the STIRPAT model. The results show that the residential electricity prices to the varying elastic coefficients is negative,which makes a dent in the residential power demand,whereas,the varying elastic coefficients of residential income level and the household population size are positive and both of them promote the residential electricity consumption though the elastic coefficient is decreasing and the elastic price of the residential electricity consumption is 2- 3 times more than that of the rural residents. The residential income elasticity coefficient to the residential electricity consumption is the largest and keeps increasing,which becomes the main influencing factor in the residential electricity consumption. It is predicted that the residential electricity consumption will be increased at least 44. 96% in the year of 2020 compared with that of in 2013 in China based on the state space model,the goal of the national economic development and the short-term social status development.

关 键 词：生活电力消费 状态空间模型 居民电价 居民收入 家庭人口规模 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]