国际能源对粮食价格传导的生产成本渠道研究  

The Research on the Price Transmitting through Production Cost Channel from Energy to Food

作　　者：尹靖华[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江外国语学院国际商学院,浙江杭州310012

出　　处：《华南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第6期70-82,共13页Journal of South China Agricultural University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会规划课题(15XXHJD10)

摘　　要：分析国际能源对粮食价格传导的生产成本渠道,并采取VAR模型进行了实证分析,得出结论:能源价格波动通过生产成本渠道导致粮食价格发生同向变化,能源投入要素的产出弹性、粮食生产要素替代弹性影响能源对粮食的价格传导;国际能源价格通过柴油和汽油渠道向国内大米和玉米价格的传导畅通,通过化肥渠道向国内粮食价格的传导不畅通,可能是由于我国农机化进程加快、粮食生产能源要素结构变化、政府补贴等因素造成的;国际能源价格上升,通过柴油渠道对玉米价格产生正向影响,通过汽油渠道对玉米价格产生负向影响,可能是乙醇市场的分割性所导致的。This paper adopted the VAR model to make an empirical analysis on price transmitting through production cost channel from energy to food.The conclusions are as follows：First,the energy price fluc-tuation leads to food prices change in the same direction through production costs channel;and grain out-put elasticity with energy inputs and factors substitution elasticity affect the price transmitting.Second, international energy prices conduct smoothly to rice and corn through the diesel and gasoline channel, while the domestic fertilizer channel is blocked,which may due to the speeding process of China’s agri-cultural mechanization,the change of energy factor structure in food production,fertilizer subsidies and so on.Third,the international energy prices impose positive influence on corn price through diesel chan-nel and negative impact on corn price through the gas channel,which may be caused by ethanol market segmentation.

关 键 词：能源价格 粮食价格 粮食生产成本 价格传导 

分 类 号：F307.11[经济管理—产业经济]