自贸区是抵御国际资本市场冲击的有力防线吗  

Is Free Trade Zone a Strong Defense Against International Capital Market Shocks

作　　者：宋潇[1] 柳明[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学 [2]南开大学金融学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2016年第10期46-56,共11页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国自由贸易区制度创新与保障体系研究"(14JZD020)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：通过增加企业的海外融资和金融加速器机制,本文建立了一个可以改变资本项目开放程度的动态一般均衡模型,用于分析自贸区模式和全开放模式下海外资本市场冲击对本国经济的影响。长期来看,当海外资本市场波动较小时资本项目开放更有利于经济体的稳定;而当海外资本市场波动较大时,盲目开放则会加剧经济波动。短期来看,无论海外资本市场是否稳定,资本项目的开放都会增加经济体遭受海外冲击的风险。相比于全开放,自贸区所设定的局部开放模式能够有效地缓解海外资本市场波动对于本国投资和产出的短期负向冲击。By adding the overseas financing sources and financial accelerator, this paper establishes a dynamic general equilibrium model with changeable capital account liberalization to analyze the impact of overseas shock under free trade model and fully open model. It finds that, in the long run, capital account liberalization can be more conducive to the stability of the economy, when the volatility of overseas capital market is small. While the capital account liberalization will bring more fluctuation with large volatility. In the short term, no matter whether overseas capital market is stable, capital account liberalization will increase the risk of overseas shock. Compared to the fully open, the Free Trade Zone can effectively relieve the negative effects of overseas shock on investment and output.

关 键 词：自贸区 金融加速器 海外资本市场冲击 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]