中国经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of Effects of Economic Development and Forest Product Trade on Wood Consumption in China

作　　者：田明华[1] 史莹赫 黄雨[1] 于豪谅[1] 秦国伟[1] 柴梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《林业科学》2016年第9期113-123,共11页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"低碳经济下中国木质林产品贸易政策转型研究"(13YJA790106)

摘　　要：【目的】目前,中国已成为全球第二大木材消耗国和第一大木材进口国,由于中国森林资源总量相对不足,木材需求与生态环境的矛盾日益突出,使经济发展、林产品贸易因涉嫌消耗大量木材而备受争议。确定中国经济发展、林产品贸易对木材消耗的影响,有助于回应有关中国是"世界森林资源的黑洞"的指责、审视中国"大进大出"林产品贸易模式、考量世界范围兴起的林产品贸易保护,为中国林业产业发展相关政策制定提供科学依据。【方法】以人均木材消耗作为森林资源的压力指标,采用中国1993—2013年时间序列数据,运用多元线性回归模型对影响中国人均木材消耗的经济发展、林产品贸易、木材供给、技术进步等关键因素进行实证分析。【结果】中国经济发展因素即人均国内生产总值(1%显著水平)、林产品贸易因素中中国林产品进口贸易(10%显著水平)、木材供给因素中中国人均森林蓄积量(10%显著水平)对中国人均木材消耗具有显著正向影响,林产品贸易因素中中国林产品出口贸易(1%显著水平)对中国人均木材消耗具有显著负向影响,林产品贸易因素中中国林产品进出口贸易规模指数、木材供给因素中中国人均原木产量、技术进步因素中中国木材产业技术进步指数和中国废纸浆利用率影响不显著。【结论】中国经济发展是影响人均木材消耗的重要因素,2006年以来中国人均木材消耗随着人均GDP正处于上升阶段;中国发展林产品出口贸易有利于减少中国人均木材消耗,中国林产品进口贸易虽然提高了中国人均木材消耗量,但相对于使用国产木材,人均木材消耗量的增加较小;由于超限额采伐等因素,中国原木产量不能很好地代表真实的中国国内木材供给状况,但以人均森林蓄积代表的木材供给因素仍是影响中国人均木材消耗最为显著、最为重要的正向作用因�【Objective】 At present,China has become the second largest country of wood consumption and the largest country of wood importing in world,but for the reason that the total amount of forest resources in China is relatively inadequate,it＇s very difficult to satisfy the tremendous demand for wood and ecological environment. Due to consumption of a large number of timber,economic development and forest product trade have become a focus for solving forest problems. However,research on the effects of economic development and forest product trade on forest resources has not reached a definite conclusion. To confirm the impact of China＇s economic development and forest products trade on wood consumption,it would be helpful to respond to the criticism that China is ＂the black hole ＂ of the world ＇s forest resources,to examine China＇s forest products trade mode which shows as＂large number of imports and a large number of export at the same time＂,to evaluation the rising forest products trade protection in the world,and finally to providescientific basis for the development of China＇s forestry industry. 【Method】This paper used wood consumption per capita as the environmental pressure index of forest resources,and used multiple linear regression models based on the time series data of China from 1993 to 2013,to analyze the factors that affect wood consumption per capita,such as economic development,forest products trade,timber supply and technology progress. 【Result】China＇s GDP per capita as the factor of economic development（ 1% significant level）,China＇s forest product import trade as a factor of forest products trade（ 10% significant level）,China＇s forest volume per capita as a factor of wood supply（ 10% significant level）,have the significant positive impact on China＇s wood consumption per capita. China＇s forest product export trade as a factor of forest products trade（ 1% significant level） has a significant negative impact on China＇s wood consumption per capita.

关 键 词：木材消耗 经济发展 国际贸易 木质林产品 中国 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]