渐进式延迟退休年龄的经济增长及产业效应——基于动态CGE模型的分析  

The Economic Growth and Industrial Structure Effect of Raising the Retirement Age:Based on dynamic CGE Model

作　　者：鲁元平[1] 朱跃序[2] 张克中[3] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院 [2]山东工商学院金融学院 [3]华中科技大学管理学院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2016年第10期30-44,共15页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金面上项目"新常态下‘增长-老龄化-养老金’三角与渐进式延迟退休研究"(15BJL088);国家自然科学基金青年项目"渐进式延迟退休年龄的经济效应及其政策选择--基于可计算一般均衡模型"(71403296);教育部人文社科基金青年项目"社会转型期‘收入-幸福’悖论的作用机制研究"(13YJC790102)

摘　　要：老龄化日趋严重的背景下,延迟退休年龄已经被提上了议事日程。本文构建了一个用于分析延迟退休年龄的动态CGE模型,研究发现:延迟退休年龄带来的劳动力增长,以及对消费、投资、贸易的积极作用可以显著地促进经济增长;资本与劳动替代关系的变化会促进要素使用效率的提高,从而提高产业结构的合理化水平,但是由于第二产业从退休年龄延迟中获益最大,不利于产业结构的高级化水平提升;从不同方案的对比来看,时间跨度较长、较为温和的延迟退休年龄方案带来的经济效果更为平稳,对产业结构的负面影响也较小。本文认为,时间跨度更长、更为稳健的延迟退休方案对当下的中国经济更加有利。Under the background of the aging,to delay retirement has been on the agenda in China.This paper builds a dynamic CGE model to analyze the delayed retirement in China and find that delay retirement in China has a significant role in promoting economic growth,the change of the substitution relation between capital and labor can enhance the using efficiency of the elements in our country,improving the level of rationalization of industrial structure.However,because the second industry can gain the most benefits from the delayed retirement,it is not conducive to enhance the high-grade level of the industrial structure.From the perspective of the comparison of different schemes,the moderate delayed retirement scheme that has longer time span can produce more smooth effects on economic and smaller negative effects on the industrial structure.

关 键 词：延迟退休 动态可计算一般均衡 经济增长 产业结构 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] F124[经济管理—国民经济]