21世纪海上丝绸之路与中国-南亚关系  

The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and China-South Asia Relations

作　　者： 吴娟娟(译)[2] 杜幼康(校)[3] 

机构地区：[1]孟加拉国国际战略研究所 [2]复旦大学外文学院 [3]复旦大学南亚研究中心

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2016年第1期31-62,142-143,共32页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

基　　金：中国与东印度洋地区合作发展协同创新中心资助

摘　　要：本文试图在当前中国—南亚关系的基础上,扼要考察南亚国家对中国提出建设21世纪海上丝绸之路的立场,并揭示这一倡议可能给未来双方关系带来的影响。更确切地说,它侧重于探究印度、斯里兰卡和孟加拉国对21世纪海上丝绸之路倡议的回应,同时旨在确定域外国家因素及其可能使中国与南亚国家合作复杂化的印度洋地缘政治问题。中国提出的"一带一路"倡议给南亚带来了广阔的发展前景,而这一地区在历史上和当今时代都与中国保持着较深层的联系与交流。尽管南亚各国普遍接受海上丝绸之路为连接通道和区域合作途径的理念,但在做具体决定时却面临着外交与政治难题。由于缺乏国内政治共识,并且作为小国都受到地理和外交上的强大压力,孟加拉国和斯里兰卡正在努力寻找务实且平衡的方式与海上丝绸之路接轨。另一方面,印度对中国的长期动机仍然是怀疑和不安的,采取的做法也摇摆不定。尽管海上丝绸之路的未来发展会给印度带来巨大的经济利益,但出于对中国崛起的地缘政治顾虑以及对中国在印度洋影响力与日俱增的担忧,印度对海上丝绸之路心存芥蒂。印度的立场是其中的重要因素,而此事的复杂性还涉及更宽泛的地缘政治对冲问题。在印度洋,印度、美国和日本的利益有一致之处。但就长远而言,高度的经济相互依存性、基础设施建设的必要性以及国民经济的重新定位等将促使南亚国家参与到海上丝绸之路建设中。This paper attempts at briefly examining South Asia's position on China's the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road( MSR) initiative in the context of current China-South Asia relations,and to find out what implications this initiative could bring for their future relations. More precisely,it focuses on responses of India,Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to MSR. It also seeks to identify extra- regional factors and Indian Ocean geopolitical issues that could complicate China's cooperation with South Asian countries. 'Belt and Road'initiatives undertaken by China has generated tremendous prospect for South Asia,a region having deeper ties and exchanges with China both historically and in the contemporary time. While there is a general acceptance of the idea of MSR as a channel for connectivity and regional cooperation,countries in the region are facing diplomatic and political dilemmas in making concrete decisions. Due to lack of domestic political consensus,and both geographic and diplomatic compulsions as small states,Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are struggling to find a pragmatic and balanced way to integrate with China's Silk Road initiatives.India on the other hand is still skeptical and nervous about China's long term motive and has taken rather an ambivalent. Geopolitical apprehensions concerning China's rise and the fear of China's growing influence in the Indian Ocean made MSR an uneasy development for India,despite the initiative's potential to accord the country huge economic benefit. While India's position would be big factor into the play,the complicacy involves a much broader geopolitical hedging. There is an alignment of interest among India,the US and Japan in the Indian Ocean. However,economic interdependence,the need for infrastructure development as well as seaward reorientation of national economies could drive South Asian countries to participate in MSR in the long run.

关 键 词：21世纪海上丝绸之路 中国—南亚关系 “一带一路”倡议 印度洋 合作共赢 

分 类 号：D822[政治法律—政治学]