灰色系统理论在生态足迹的影响因素分析及预测中的应用研究  

Application of the Grey System Theory in the Influence Factors Analysis and Forecasts of Ecological Footprint

作　　者：宇鹏[1] 高超 胡宝清[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室广西地表过程与智能模拟实验室,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《广西师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期60-65,共6页Journal of Guangxi Teachers Education University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41361022);2016广西自然科学基金(2016GXNSFAA380087)

摘　　要：运用改进的生态足迹模型计算了2005—2012年南宁市的生态足迹,利用灰色系统理论对南宁市生态足迹中各影响因素进行关联度分析,并对生态足迹进行预测。结果表明:人均生态足迹从0.735 8hm2上升至1.285 9hm2,化石能源消费与生态足迹、生态赤字的关联度最大,2013—2020年间人均生态足迹将从1.779 172hm2上升至2.535 383hm2,生态压力将进一步增大。提升农业科技水平、降低化石能源消费等可降低南宁市人均生态赤字。Improved ecological footprint model has been used to calculate ecological footprint of Nanning city from 2005 to 2012.By adopting grey system theory,this paper analyzes all kinds of factors that affect the ecological footprint and predicts the future development of it.The results showed that：The per capita ecological footprint went up from 0.735 8hm^2 to 1.285 9hm^2.Fossil energy consumption associated the greatest degree with ecological footprint and ecological deficit.From 2013 to 2020,the per capita ecological footprint would rise from 1.779 172hm^2 to 2.535 383hm^2,thus,ecological pressure would further increase.In order to reduce per capita ecological deficit in Nanning,agricultural technology and science should be improved and fossil energy consumption should be decreased.

关 键 词：生态足迹 生态赤字 灰色关联法 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]