概率因果理论的新进展及其问题分析  

New Development of Probabilistic Theory of Causation and Its Problem Analysis

作　　者：杨武金[1] 李波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学哲学院,北京100872

出　　处：《内蒙古社会科学》2016年第5期39-45,共7页Inner Mongolia Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"应用逻辑与逻辑应用研究"(编号:14ZDB014);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目"逻辑哲学若干重要问题研究"(编号:10XNJ022)

摘　　要：概率与因果的结合与相互渗透是现代归纳逻辑应用发展的一种新趋势。早期朴素概率因果理论的发展面临诸多困难与挑战,近来,学者们从不同的分析视角出发提出新的解决方案为其辩护,我们对这些新解决方案展开分析和讨论,指出它们也同样面临诸多问题,由此,就这些问题产生的原因提出我们的一些思考。(1)因果与概率具有某种相关性但非等价性;(2)因果关系的普遍性、复杂性和异质性势必要求因果解释的多元化;(3)概率解释的多样性也是概率因果理论面临诸多问题的重要原因;(4)从科学实在论来看,不同的解决方案通过不同的方式来实现因果关系的实在性,而不同的方式导致它们遭遇不同的问题。The integration and penetration of probability and causality is a new trend in the development of modem inductive logic application. Early development of naive probabilistic theory of causation was confronted with many difficulties and challenges. Recently, many scholars offer new solutions to defend this theory from different theoretical perspective or analytical approach. However, these major programs are also faced with many problems with regard to the cause of these problems. This paper offers some considerations ： Firstly, there are certain relevance and homoorganicity between causation and probability, but not equivalence. Secondly, the universality, complexity and heterogenicity of causation are bound to pluralism of causal interpretation. Thirdly, the pluralism of probabilistic interpretation is also the important cause which probabilistic theory of causation is faced with many problems. Fourthly, looking from the scientific realism, different solutions realize causal reality by different way, while these different ways result in different problems which they will be confronted with.

关 键 词：概率因果理论 朴素概率因果 因果概率解释 

分 类 号：B152[哲学宗教—世界哲学]