蒙特卡罗模拟方法在港口项目基本预备费的应用  

Basic reserve fund calculation of port project based on Monte Carlo simulation

作　　者：卢昭[1] 石宁 于英彬 李铸[1] 

机构地区：[1]中交水运规划设计院有限公司,北京100007 [2]北京凯思迈宁科技有限公司,北京100028

出　　处：《水运工程》2016年第B10期54-56,共3页Port & Waterway Engineering

摘　　要：设置项目基本预备费是对项目建设及投资估算风险进行控制的重要手段之一。现行的港口项目基本预留费测算通常采用统一费率的方法,仅依靠固定费率计算基本预备费。由于基本预备费考虑的是风险可能引起的附加费用,固定费率不能很好地反映实际情况。针对这一问题,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行研究;该方法通过模拟投资估算分解的概率分布来测算不可预见费用作为基本预留费,可以考虑项目投资分解构成的具体特点、提供风险定量分析依据,使基本预留费估算得更加合理、科学、有效。Setting the project basic reserve fund is one of the important approaches to control the project risks. Usually, a fixed rate is used to calculate the fund. Because the fund is used to deal with the risk that may result in additional capital expenditure, the fixed rate method may not reflect the reality situation accurately.In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation method is implemented in which the contingency is calculated by simulating decomposition investment to measure the distribution of unforeseen expenses. By the specific characteristics of decomposition, the quantitative risk analysis basis is formed, while the contingency become more rational, scientific and effective.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗 基本预留费 不可预见费 

分 类 号：U6[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]