京津冀地区城镇化对能源消费的动态冲击效应——基于SVAR模型的分析  

Dynamic impact of urbanization shocks to the energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：汪泽波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第9期7-13,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY055);国家社会科学基金项目(11AZD093)资助

摘　　要：选取京津冀地区1985-2012年能源消费和人口城镇化率数据,利用"结构向量自回归模型"(SVAR)模型脉冲响应函数及方差分解方法,对三地城镇化进程中城镇化率与能源消费需求之间动态波动效应作实证分析。脉冲响应函数分析显示,京津冀三地能源消费对城镇化率冲击的响应存在巨大的差异,具体表现为北京是正向的响应,天津为负向的响应,短期变化剧烈,中长期趋于稳定,河北表现为滞后3期后"先负后正"的周期作用。方差分解显示,京津冀三地城镇化率对能源消费增长的贡献作用有限,能源消费增长效应主要来源于其本身。从长期看,北京的城镇化发展对能源消费增长作用强于天津和河北。三地在加快城镇化建设、推动区域协同发展过程中需要因地制宜,制定适合本地区的低碳发展政策。北京、天津城镇化已经发展到比较高的阶段,在京津冀协同发展中需要注重能源消费结构的调整。河北需要加速推进城镇化发展步伐,转变发展理念,减少煤炭的消费,提升城镇化建设的质量。Energy consumption and Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region＇ s population urbanization rate data from 1985 to 2012 and the impulse response function and variance decomposition method in SVAR model were used to analyzed the dynamic impact of urbanization on energy consumption in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions in the process of urbanization. Impulse response function analysis shows that there was a huge difference in the responses of energy consumption to urbanization rate among Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei regions; Beijing was a positive response, Tianjin showed negative response, it changed drastically in short- term, stability in long- term; but Hebei was lagging behind 3 periods and then showed ＂ negative - positive＂ periodic function. Variance decomposition shows the contribution of urbanization rate of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei to the growth of energy consumption was limited, and energy consumption growth was mainly derived from its own. In the long term, the effect of urbanization development growth on energy consumption in Beijing is stronger than Tianjin and Hebei. In the process of accelerating the construction of urbanization and promoting the development of regional cooperation, Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei need to adjust measures to local conditions, formulate a low carbon development policy for the region. Beijing and Tianjin have developed to a high stage of urbanization, need to pay more attention to the adjustment of the energy consumption structure in the coordinated development of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei. Hebei needs to accelerate the pace of urbanization development, transform the concept of economic development, reduce the coal consumption, and improve the quality of urbanization construction.

关 键 词：京津冀 城镇化 能源消费 SVAR 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]