莎车1991—2013年春季首日变化特征及其对果树花期的影响  

Variation Characteristics of Spring Starting Dates from 1991 to 2013 in Shache of West Xinjiang and Its Influence on Flowering

作　　者：徐相明 顾品强 韩涛[4] 陈丛敏 李钟霞 

机构地区：[1]上海市奉贤区气象局,上海201416 [2]新疆自治区莎车县气象局,莎车844700 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]中国科学技术大学,合肥230026

出　　处：《气象科技》2016年第5期841-847,共7页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局上海2012年中央财政"三农"气象服务专项[中气函(2012)357号];上海市奉贤区(社会类)科技发展基金项目(201324)资助

摘　　要：利用莎车县气象局1990—2013年地面气象观测资料和莎车农业气象试验站1992—2013年杏、苹果、桃、梨、沙枣、巴旦姆花期观测资料,分析莎车春季首日变化特征及对果树花期的影响。结果表明：莎车春季首日平均为3月21日,2000年出现突变性提前,春季首日与3月及3月各旬平均气温呈极显著相关,与年平均气温、1月中旬及2月下旬平均气温呈显著相关;3—5月果树陆续进入花期,杏（巴旦姆）花期最早、梨（桃、苹果）花期次之、沙枣花期最晚。杏、梨、沙枣花期持续时间年际差异较大,但均呈现增多趋势,其中杏突增年份与春季首日突变年份基本一致,梨、沙枣偏晚3~5年;果树开花始期、开花盛期、开花末期与春季首日的差值变化基本一致,其中开花始期与春季首日相关性最好,杏花期与春季首日最接近;采用偏最小二乘法建立杏、梨、沙枣等3种代表性果树开花始期回归预报模型,经历史拟合和2011—2013年检验,模型可以较好的模拟和预报杏、梨、沙枣开花始期。The variation characteristics of spring starting date and its influence on flowering in Shache of West Xinjiang are analyzed,by use the ground meteorological data from Shache Meteorological Service from 1990 to 2013and the blooming period observation data of apricot,apple,peach,pear,elaeagnus angustifolia,Amygdalus Communis L from Shache Agricultural Meteorological Station from 1992 to 2013.It is found that the average spring starting date is 21 March,and there occurred an exceptional advance in2000.The starting date of spring not only is significantly correlated with the average temperature in March and the temperatures of various dekads in March,but also is significantly correlated with the temperatures of the middle January,the late February and the whole year.Fruit trees bloom gradually from March to May.The flowering of apricot（Amygdalus Communis L）is the earliest,pear（peach,apple）the second and oleaster the latest.The inter-annual differences of flowering durations of apricot,pear,and elaeagnus angustifolia are relatively larger,but all in an increasing trend.The differences in the starting dates of starting flowering,blooming,and late flowing of fruit trees and the date of spring starting are nearly the same.It reveals that the correlation between flowering starting and spring starting dates is the best,and the apricot is the closest.The regression forecasting model of flowering starting dates of fruit trees（apricot,pear,elaeagnus angustifolia）is established by using the partial least square method.The model can well simulate and forecast the flowering starting dates of apricot,pear,and elaeagnus angustifolia through the historical fitting and tests from 2011 to 2013.

关 键 词：莎车 春季首日 变化特征 花期 预测模型 

分 类 号：P402[天文地球—大气物理学与大气环境]