基于熵权物元分析法的水利发展规划实施效果后评价研究  

Past-evaluation of Water Conservancy Development Plan Based on Entropy Weight and Matter Element Model

作　　者：曹睿哲[1,2] 俞双恩[1,2] 高世凯[1,2] 郭蓉[1,2] 田浪[2] CAO Ruizhe YU Shuang＇ en GAO Shikai GUO Rong TIAN Lang(Key Laboratory of High-Efficient Irrigation and Drainage and Agriculture Water and Soil Environment in Southern China, Ministry of Education, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学南方地区高效灌排与农业水土环境教育部重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年第11期62-68,共7页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479063;41401628)

摘　　要：为评价已经完成的水利发展规划实施效果,构建了4大类19项指标的规划后评价指标体系,运用熵权法确定指标权重。根据各个指标的具体数值,划分了优秀、良好、一般、较差和差的5个评价等级。使用物元分析法对各指标的实测值进行了计算,确定该规划完成情况,并对结果进行了敏感性分析,保证结果的准确性与科学性。结果表明,淮安市"十二五"水利发展规划实施情况优秀,该评价方法拥有较强的数学理论依据,准确性高。In order to evaluate the performing effect of the completed water conservancy development plan, the past-evaluation index system of water conservancy development plan was built. There were 4 categories and 19 indexes in the system. The entropy method was used to determine the index weight. According to the concrete val- ue of each index, it was divided into 5 grades, such as excellent, good, general, poor and especially poor. The mat- ter element analysis method was used to calculate measured value of each index and to determine the completion of the plan, and the sensitivity analysis was conducted on the evaluation results to assure that the evaluation re- suits were accurate and scientific. Huaian city＇s 12th five-year water conservancy development plan was evaluat- ed as excellent. This evaluation method has strong mathematical theory basis with high accuracy.

关 键 词：客观赋权法 熵权法 物元分析法 权重计算 后评价 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F426.91[经济管理—产业经济]