大庆断褶带最大潜在地震发生概率评估  

Assessment of the Occurrence Probability of the Largest Potential Earthquake in the Daqing Fault-fold Region

作　　者：康健 韦庆海 张立忱 余中元 赵斌 刘青松 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省地震局,哈尔滨150090 [2]绥化市地震局,绥化163002

出　　处：《震灾防御技术》2016年第3期573-581,共9页Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention

基　　金：中国地震局地震行业科研专项(1521044025)

摘　　要：2011—2015年在大庆地区开展了活断层探测,查明区内北北东向断裂若干条,皆为大安-德都断裂的分支断裂,最新活动时代为Q_(1-2)。根据进一步研究发现大庆地区存在断裂褶皱变形带(以下简称断褶带)现象。断褶带与长垣隆起关系密切,分析大安-德都断裂活动是造成长垣隆起的内在动力成因。故由对大安-德都断裂各分支断裂的评价,进而引申到对断褶带地震危险性的评价是科学合理的。本文以断褶带为潜在震源区重新分析东北潜在震源区的地震空间分布概率,采用地震危险性概率分析方法,利用G-R关系预测断褶带未来100年内6.0级地震发震概率是0.039,重现周期为2500年。Active fault detection was carried out in the Daqing area during 2011-2015, in which several NNE-trending branches of Da＇an-Dedu fault with the latest active time of Q1-2. were identified, We found that there exist the evidences of the fault fold deformation zone （Hereinafter referred to as fault-fold region） in the Daqing area. The fault-fold region and Daqing placanticline are closely related and the fault activity is the intrinsic motivation of Daqing placanticline uplift. In this paper, we use the fault-fold region to count the spatial distribution function as the potential source zone. The seismic risk probability analysis by G-R relationship is applied to obtain that the occurrence probability of magnitude 6.0 earthquake in 100 years in fault-fold region is 0.039 with the recurrence period of 2500 years.

关 键 词：大庆长垣 断褶带 G-R关系 发震概率 重现周期 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]