近十年中国地质灾害时空发育规律分析  

Temporal-spatial distribution discipline of geological disaster in China in recent ten years

作　　者：薛凯喜[1,2] 胡艳香[1,2] 邹玉亮[1] Binod Tiwari 魏永起[1] 顾连胜[1] XUE Kaixi HU Yanxiang ZOU Yuliang Binod Tiwar WEI Yongqi GU Liansheng(State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China University of Technology, Nanchang , Jiangxi 330013, China Civil ＆ Environmental Engineering Department, California State University, Fullerton, USA, CA 92831, USA)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学核资源与环境教育部重点实验室培育基地,江西南昌330013 [2]加州州立大学富尔顿分校土木与环境工程系,美国加利福尼亚州92831

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2016年第3期90-97,共8页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41462011);江西省科技计划项目(20123BBG70214;20122BAB216002);江西省数字国土重点实验室开放基金(DLLG201112)

摘　　要：本文对中国国土资源部发布的历年《全国地质灾害通报》进行了全面梳理,依托2005-2014年各类地质灾害记录数据详尽分析了研究区域内地质灾害的时空发育规律。六种灾害类别中山体滑坡和崩塌灾害的发育显著性最为明显,泥石流次之,且具有群发性和伴发性特征;地质灾害发育的区域差异性非常显著,文中分别给出了地质灾害高度发育与因灾损失最为严重的省级区域,并分析了各省级区域因灾损失程度和灾害发育总量的关系,但其相关性并不明显;除四川省外,重大地质灾害多发的省份并非灾害总量居高的省份,重大地质灾害的的集中发育时间与极端降雨频发月份基本相符,且统计显示其诱因主要为强降雨;近年来中国地质灾害成功避让起数、灾害避让率和避免死亡人数等预警预报成效逐步提高,但避免直接经济损失的规律性不强,一定程度上突显出遭遇地质灾害时对房屋及基础设施等不动产的保护能力尚显不足。本文的相关结论源自统计数据的直观分析,可为地质灾害防治及预警预报工作提供客观的咨询依据。In this paper,annual ＂National Geological Disaster Bulletin ＂ issued by Ministry of Land and Resources of the Peoples of China from 2005 to 2014 a were comprehensive arranged,then the temporal-spatial distribution discipline of geological disasters was analyzed according to all kinds record data. Landslides and collapse develop most significantly in all six kinds of hazard categories,the following is Mudslides,clustering and associated with each other are the common characteristic for them. Regional differentiation in geological disaster occurrence is very significant,high frequency areas and particularly serious loss regionals are given in this paper,the relationship between the occurrence number and losses tolls of disasters were analyzed,but their relevance is not remarkable. In addition to Sichuan Province,the major geological disaster-prone provinces are not the provinces which have the bigger occurrence number of geological disasters, andcentralized development time of major geological disasters is consistency with the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. In recent years,a number of geological disasters have been to predict in advance,disaster avoidance rate,avoid deaths and other warning and forecasting results gradually improved,but the improvement of avoid direct economic loss is not very well,Reflecting that the protection for housing,infrastructure and other real estate is insufficient when encounter geological disasters to a certain extent. Intuitive analysis of relevant conclusions from statistical data in this paper,it can provide an objective basis for geological disaster early warning and forecasting work.

关 键 词：地质灾害 灾情分级 损失程度 预警预报 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]