一次能源消费结构调整对碳强度影响的灵敏度分析——以江苏省为例  

作　　者：龙如银[1] 陈迪雄[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院

出　　处：《企业经济》2016年第10期16-23,共8页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"城市居民节能行为影响因素及引导政策研究---以中国东部城市为例"(项目编号:71273258);国家自然科学基金项目"基于‘态度--行为’缺口修复视角的城市居民绿色出行促进政策研究"(项目编号:71473247)

摘　　要：以通径分析为基础,探讨了一次能源消费结构对碳强度的影响机理,并运用FAST分析了江苏省一次能源消费结构变动对碳强度影响的灵敏度。研究结论表明:煤炭消费比例是促进碳强度增长的主要因素,其他能源(水电、风电、核电等)消费比例是抑制碳强度增长的主要因素;碳强度对煤炭消费比例最敏感,其他能源消费比例次之,对天然气消费比例最不敏感。在总量不变的前提下,将单位煤炭消费比例用单位其他能源消费比例替代时,达到的碳强度降低效果最明显。因此,为了尽快达到碳强度目标,在能源消费结构优化方面,应以降低煤炭消费比例和增加其他能源消费为侧重点。同时,加速开发低碳技术,促进江苏能源结构转型,倡导低碳绿色生活方式和消费模式。Based on path analysis, this paper firstly discusses the influence mechanism of the primary energy consumption structure to the carbon intensity. And the FAST is introduced to explore the analysis on sensitivity of the primary energy consumption structure changes to the carbon intensity in Jiangsu province. The results are as follows： firstly, the coal consumption pro- portion is the main factor for promoting the increase of carbon intensity and the consumption proportions of other energies （hydropower, wind power and nuclear power, etc.） are the main factors for inhibiting the increase of carbon intensity; sec- ondly, carbon intensity is the most sensitive to coal consumption proportion, followed by the consumption proportions of other energies, and the most insensitive to the consumption proportion of natural gas. On the premise of constant total amount, when replaced by the consumption proportions of the other unit energies, will achieve the most obvious lower ef- fect of carbon intensity. In order to achieve the carbon intensity target as soon as possible, therefore, we are supposed to reduce the proportion of coal consumption and increase energy consumption for priorities on the energy consumption struc- ture optimization, and accelerate the development of low-carbon technologies, promote energy structure transformation in Jiangsu province, and advocate low carbon green lifestyles and consumption patterns.

关 键 词：一次能源消费结构 碳强度 傅里叶幅值灵敏度分析(FAST) 通径分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F063.2