中国通货膨胀预期陷阱分析——基于马尔可夫机制转换模型的实证  

作　　者：黄正新[1] 周煜麟 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《企业经济》2016年第10期147-152,共6页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"通胀预期陷阱视角下货币政策预期管理研究"(项目编号:13BJL025)

摘　　要：运用马尔可夫机制转换模型和2000年1季度-2015年2季度中国人民银行储户问卷调查的季度数据,对我国通货膨胀预期陷阱进行了实证分析。结论表明:我国经济曾经两次滑入通胀预期陷阱,时间分别是2005年2季度-2006年4季度,2012年1季度-2015年2季度。前一次由于有关部门误判公众通胀预期态势而采用了过度扩张的货币政策,诱致了政策型通胀预期陷阱,后一次则是政府初步治理通胀预期陷阱的有效尝试。最后提出要认真甄别流动性陷阱与通胀预期陷阱、慎用凯恩斯式的刺激政策、进一步提高货币政策的透明度、改善并加强对通胀预期的预测能力、克服货币政策时间的不一致性等建议。By using the Markov switching model and the quarterly data of the questionnaire for the accounts of the Peoples＇ Bank of China from the 1 quarter of 2000 to the 2 quarter of 2015, the paper has made an empirical analysis on the inflation expectation trap. The results showed that： China＇s economy slid into inflation expectation traps from the 2 quarter of 2005 to the 4 quarter of 2006, and from the 1 quarter of 2012 and the 2 quarter of 2015. The former is the policy type inflation expectation trap due to the monetary authorities＇ misjudging public inflation expectation situation and the use of excessively expansionary monetary policy, while the latter is preliminary government governance inflation expectation trap. Finally, the paper make some policy recommendations of carefully distinguishing and identifying flow trap and inflation expectation trap, cautioning Keynesian stimulus policies, further improving the transparency of monetary policy, and improving and strengthening the ability to forecast inflation expectations as to overcome the inconsistency of monetary policy time.

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期陷阱 马尔可夫机制转换模型 通胀预期管理 

分 类 号：F832.1[经济管理—金融学]