Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration of China  

中国京津冀地区电力消费与经济增长（英文）

作　　者：潘玉雪 李海涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2016年第5期360-371,共12页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Basic Research Program of China(2012BAC03B03-2)

摘　　要：Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China＇s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series （electricity consumption and economic growth） of the three locales （Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei） are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.近年来,经济增长与电力消费之间的因果关系受到越来越多的关注。本文利用单位根检验,Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,研究了北京-天津-河北地区1982-2008年期间电力消费与经济增长之间的因果关系。实证结果表明,北京、天津和河北三区的电力消费与经济增长的时间序列都是一阶平稳的。Johansen协整检验的结果表明,在河北和天津,电力消费和经济增长之间存在着协整关系,而在北京,电力消费和经济增长之间则不存在协整关系。我们发现,三个地区均存在着从电力消费到经济增长方向的因果关系,而从经济增长到电力消费方向的因果关系只存在于河北和北京。这意味着,在河北和北京,电力消费的增长将直接影响经济的增长,同时经济增长也将进一步刺激电力消费;但是在天津,电力消费的增加可以直接影响经济的增长,而经济增长则不能影响电力消费。本研究对于发展循环经济和构建资源节约型社会具有重要意义。

关 键 词：electricity consumption economic growth granger causality error correction modelling 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F127