菏泽冬季日光温室内最低气温预测方法的对比研究  

Comparative study on forecasting methods of minimum temperature in solar greenhouse of Heze in winter

作　　者：李瑞英 任崇勇 

机构地区：[1]菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽274000

出　　处：《气象科学》2016年第5期697-702,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206020);山东省气象局课题(2013sdqx11)

摘　　要：利用2012/2013年冬季菏泽巨野日光温室内外的逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、相对湿度、日照时数和最大风速等气象观测资料,采用相关分析法确定了影响温室内最低气温的关键气象因子,采用逐步回归法和主成分分析法分别建立温室内最低气温预报模型,并用2013/2014年冬季的气象数据检验评价两种预报模型的差异。结果表明:(1)温室内最低气温与当天温室内外及前1 d温室内外的气温、相对湿度、日照时数等相关性比较显著。(2)两种方法建立的预报模型均通过了α=0.01的显著性检验,逐步回归法所建预报模型得到的整个冬季预测值与实测值的相关系数为0.82,平均绝对误差仅为0.9℃,平均相对误差仅为9%;而主成分分析法所建的预报模型得到的整个冬季预测值与实测值的相关系数为0.58,平均绝对误差为1.8℃,平均相对误差为15%。由此表明,用逐步回归法所建的温室内最低气温预报模型的准确度高于主成分分析法,可满足预测冬季温室内最低气温的业务需求。Based on the meteorological observation data including daily mean temperature, the maxi- mum temperature, the minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and the maximum wind speed of solar greenhouse in Juye during winter of 2012-2013, the main meteorological factors affecting the minimum temperature of solar greenhouse were determined by using correlation analysis, the forecast model of the minimum temperature was established by using stepwise regression analysis and principal component analysis, and the difference of the two forecast models was tested with the winter meteorological data during 2013-2014. Results show：（ 1 ） a significant correlation existed among the minimum temperature, temperature, relative humidity, sunshine of the day and the last day inside and outside the solax greenhouse. （2）All forecast models have all passed the significance and verification test （p〈0. 01 ）. The correlation coefficient, average absolute error, the average relative error of forecast models using stepwise regression and principal component analysis were 0. 82 and 0. 58, 0.9℃ and 1.8℃, 9% and 15%, respectively, which indicated that the higher forecast accuracy of stepwise regression makes it meet the business requirement for forecast the minimum temperature of solar greenhouse in winter.

关 键 词：日光温室 预测 冬季 检验 

分 类 号：S625.51[农业科学—园艺学]