我国肉牛生产与农业机械化释放效应分析  

Study on Beef Cattle Production and Its Influence on Agricultural Mechanization in China

作　　者：石自忠[1] 王明利[2] 胡向东[2] 崔姹[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第6期32-40,143,共9页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"我国肉牛产业发展规律及财政扶持政策研究"(71173220);现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(CARS-35-22);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2015-01);中国农业大学博士后基金项目"财政补贴政策扶持肉牛生产效果评价"(2014M550893)

摘　　要：我国养牛业长期受到农业生产的束缚,改革开放之后,政府放开养牛业,产业得到快速发展。新中国成立以来,我国肉牛产业可划分为三个时期,即"原始肉牛业时期"、"传统肉牛业时期"和"现代肉牛业时期",养牛业历经"役用"、"兼用"乃至"肉用"的历史进程。基于农业机械化对肉牛产业发展的释放作用,借助面板VAR模型分析了农业机械化对肉牛生产的影响。研究结果表明:农业机械化对我国肉牛生产的推动作用非常明显;"传统肉牛业时期"及过渡时期肉牛生产受农业机械化的影响比"现代肉牛业时期"更大;非粮食主产区受影响比粮食主产区稍大,但持续时间相对较短。Beef cattle industry has been constrained by the agricultural development for a long time.After the reform and opening up,the government loosened its hold on the cattle industry,which makes the beef cattle industry get rapid development.Since the founding of new China,beef cattle industry could be divided into three periods:preliminary period,traditional and modern periods.The beef cattle industry also goes through draft cattle,working-meat and meat orientation processes.Based on the influence of agricultural mechanization substitution on beef cattle industry,this paper analyzes the influence of agricultural mechanization on beef cattle production by using panel VAR model.The result shows that the influences of agricultural machinization on the beef cattle production are very obvious.The influence of agricultural mechanization on the beef cattle production during the period of tradition and transition was much larger than that during the modern period.Non-major grain producing area is slightly affected than the major grain producing area,while the duration is relatively short.

关 键 词：肉牛生产 阶段划分 农业机械化 释放效应 面板VAR模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]