气候变化背景下陕西关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化特征  

Change Characteristics of Crop Climate Production Potential Under the Background of Climate Change in Western Guanzhong of Shaanxi

作　　者：王春娟 何可杰 

机构地区：[1]凤翔县气象局,陕西凤翔721400 [2]宝鸡市气象局,陕西宝鸡721006

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2016年第28期170-176,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：陕西省气象局科技创新基金项目"宝鸡主要农作物对气候变化的响应研究"(2010M-28)

摘　　要：为了研究气候变化背景下关中西部作物气候生产潜力变化规律,选用宝鸡市11个气象站1961—2010年温度、降水等气象资料,应用Tuynthwhite Memoral模式计算分析宝鸡地区作物气候生产力状况及其变化趋势。结果表明：关中西部气候生产力呈递减趋势;年及各季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,降水量呈下降趋势;气候暖干化使作物气候生产潜力以35.69 kg/（hm2·10 a）的速率波动下降,降水是主要限制因子;气候生产力利用率平均为34.8%,作物生产有较大的发展潜力;未来气候情景下,＂暖湿型＂气候对区域作物生产最有利,平均增产幅度8.5%~22.5%,而＂冷干型＂气候对作物生产最不利,平均减产幅度为5.7%~20.8%。The paper aims to study the change laws of crop climate production potential in western Guanzhongof Shaanxi under the background of climate change. The authors chose the temperature and precipitation of 11 meteorological stations in Baoji from 1961 to 2010, used Tuynthwhite Memoral model to calculate and analyzethe situation of crop climate productivity and its change trend in Baoji. The results showed that： climateproductivity potential showed a decreasing trend in western Guanzhong; the annual and seasonal averagetemperature showed a significant upward trend and the precipitation showed a decreasing trend; climatewarming and drying made crop climate productive potential decline in volatility with 35.69 kg/（hm2·10 a）, theprecipitation was the main limiting factor; the use ratio of climate production potential was 34.8% on average,so crop production had a big development potential. Under future climate scenarios, warm and humid climatewill be most favorable for crop production, the average yield increase range will be 8.5%-22.5%, while coldand dry climate will be the most negative for crop production, the average yield decrease range will be 5.7%-20.8%.

关 键 词：气候生产力 气候变化 温度和降水量 关中西部 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]