基于组合赋权法的着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素评估  

Evaluation of the influencing factors for landing overrun runway accidents based on combination weighting approach

作　　者：刘军凯[1] 崔振新[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《飞行力学》2016年第5期77-81,共5页Flight Dynamics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(61304207);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(ZXH2012P001)

摘　　要：为了研究着陆冲出跑道事故的影响因素,在综合分析事故案例及已有研究成果的基础上,建立了着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素的指标体系,其中包括"人、机、环、管"为主的4个一级指标和14个二级指标,运用组合赋权法构建着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素的评估模型。采用该模型对近几年官方发布的完整的43起着陆冲出跑道事故调查报告进行评估,分别运用熵权法和层次分析法计算评价指标的客观及主观权重,之后利用组合赋权法得到组合权重并对评估结果进行对比分析。评估结果表明,引入组合赋权法可以得到着陆冲出跑道事故影响因素的科学的权重大小,对防范着陆冲出跑道事故的发生以及改善民航安全有一定的指导意义。In order to analyze the influencing factors for landing overrun runway accidents,on the basis of the comprehensive analysis of accident case and previous research,an influencing factors index system for landing overrun runway accidents was set up,including the ＂ human,mechanical,environment,management＂ factors of 4 primary indexes and 14 secondary indexes,and the landing overrun runway accidents evaluation model of influencing factors is established by applying the approach of combination weighting.The report for the 43 landing overrun runway accidents released in recent years was evaluated officially with the model. The entropy weighting approach and the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） were used to calculate and evaluate objective weighting and subjective weighting respectively. Then,combination weighting was obtained with the use of combination weighting approach,and the evaluation results were analyzed. Evaluation results show that introduction of the approach of combination weighting could scientifically get the weights of influencing factors for landing overrun runway accidents,and could provide certain significant guidance for preventing the landing overrun runway accidents and improving the civil aviation safety.

关 键 词：着陆冲出跑道事故 熵权法 层次分析法 组合赋权法 

分 类 号：V328.1[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]