基于案例学习的社区应急情景决策桌面培训方法  

Tabletop Training Method for Community Emergency Scenario Decision-making Based on Case Learning

作　　者：乔立民[1,2] 李向阳[1] 于峰[1] QIAO Li-min LI Xiang-yang YU Feng(School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China Beijing Institute of New Technology Applications, Beijing 100094, China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [2]北京市新技术应用研究所,北京100094

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2016年第5期28-37,共10页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理重大研究计划项目(91024028;91024031;91324018);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172156;71473058)

摘　　要：随着我国城市化发展,城市突发事件呈现出多元化与复杂化,相关社区应急管理问题越发凸显。突发事件情景应对所暴露出的决策不适对应急决策者能力提升提出了更为"情景化"的要求。案例是情景记忆的一种表现形式,可用于应急决策者灾前培训。因此,面向社区应急情景决策,本文提出基于历史案例的"互动-学习-顿悟-强化(ILIS)"的桌面培训方法。该方法结合案例推理、综合集成方法与顿悟学习法,可实现逐步挖掘应急决策知识的目的,以提升应急决策者能力。最后,通过在深圳市应用显示的结果说明所提方法的可行性与有效性。With the development of urbanization in China and the diversification and complication of urban emer-gencies, the related community emergency management issues have become highlighted increasingly. The deci-sion-making failures exposed in the actual disaster events put forward the ＂scenario-based＂ requirements for im-proving the ability of emergency decision-makers. Case is a form of episodic memory which can help to trainemergency decision-makers in pre-disaster phase. Thus,.regarding community emergency scenario decision-making, in this paper a tabletop training method called ＂Interaction-Learning-Insight-Strengthening（ILIS）＂ isproposed based on historical cases. This method integrates case-based reasoning, meta-synthetic method and in-sight learning method, which can gradually mine emergency decision-making knowledge to improve the ability ofemergency decision-makers. Finally, the feasibility and validity of the proposed method can be illustrated by theresults of an example in Shenzhen.

关 键 词：社区应急情景决策 桌面培训 案例推理 综合集成方法 顿悟学习法 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]