21世纪以来中国人口重心动态转移路径及驱动力研究  

Research on Dynamic Transfer Path and Driving Force of China's Population since 21st Century

作　　者：马姣娇 牛安逸 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学地理科学学院,广东广州510631

出　　处：《平顶山学院学报》2016年第5期74-78,共5页Journal of Pingdingshan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41271060)

摘　　要：运用重心模型、重心偏移距离和方向计算公式,选取2000—2013年统计年鉴数据,测算出人口重心地理坐标,结合重心路径几何图示法,在Arc GIS 10.0环境下绘制出人口重心动态转移路径图,从偏移方向、移动距离、移动速度、斜率等方面来研究在2000—2013年期间人口重心的空间转移动态变化路径,得到中国人口空间分布区域差异情况.研究表明:在2000—2013年期间,我国人口重心基本上位于(113°E,31°N)附近,人口空间分布的东西差异远大于南北差异,我国人口重心动态转移路径年际变化复杂,13年来总体趋势向东北偏移,但在近几年开始转向西北,移动速度缓慢,平均每年仅移动2.11 km.国家发展战略的提出是人口重心产生偏移的主要驱动力,从2015年国家新提出的"一带一路"发展战略,可以推测中国人口重心在近几年中将继续向西移动.Using gravity model,gravity center offset distance and formula of direction,and selecting 2000-2013 statistical yearbook data to measure the geographical coordinates of population gravity center,then combining with the geometric figure method of center of gravity path to draw dynamic transfer path of population gravity center under the environment of Arc GIS 10. 0,we research the dynamic change path of spatial transfer of population gravity center in 2000-2013 from offset direction,moving distance,moving speed,slope and other aspects to find out the regional differences of Chinese population spatial distribution. The study has shown that during 2000 to 2013,the population gravity center in China is mainly located at（ 113 ° E,31 ° N）. And it also shows that the latitude correlation outweighs longitude＇s in the population gravity. The focus of population in China is following a dynamic complex path in China during these 13 years with the overall northeast migration trend,but turning to slow northwest movement in recent years. The mobility is only 2. 11 kilometers per year on average. The forward of national development strategy affects population barycenter offset trajectory. With the newly established 2015 national ＂ One Belt One Road＂ development strategy,it can be speculated that in recent years,China＇s population center of gravity will continue to shift to the west.

关 键 词：人口重心 转移路径 动态分析 中国 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]