基于确定性系数法的鄱阳湖孕螺环境因子敏感性分析  

Analysis of sensitivity to environmental factors for snail breeding in Poyang Lake region based on certainty factor model

作　　者：马玉宽[1,2] 赵安[1,2] MA Yukuan ZHAO An(Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330022 [2]江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西南昌330022

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2016年第5期64-73,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81260449);江西省教育厅2012年度科技项目(CJJ12185)~~

摘　　要：以南昌市新建县恒湖农场鄱阳湖茶叶港湿地为例,选取植物种类的高度、盖度和土壤温度、湿度、导电率、高程等共10个因子作为诱发钉螺孳生的环境因子,基于GIS空间分析,应用确定性系数概率模型,对10个因子的敏感性进行了研究。结果表明：钉螺易分布于下述地理环境：（1）南荻盖度在16%之上与南荻高度高于80 cm之上;（2）苔草盖度低于30%;（3）土壤的电导率低于0.09 m S/cm,温度在16~19℃,湿度较低,特别是在0.27%~0.34%区间;（4）研究区高程大于15 m。评价结果与实际钉螺分布情况十分吻合,表示该模型能够较好地应用于对钉螺孳生繁衍的预测。Taking chayegang marsh land of Henghu Farm in Xinjian County, Nanchang City as an example and based on GIS spatial analysis and certainty factor probabilistic model, this paper researches sensitivity of snail breeding to 10 environmental factors, such as coverage and height of plant species, temperature/humidity/electric conductivity and elevation of soil etc. The results indicate that, the snails breed easily in following geographic envi- ronments：the coverage and height of miscanthussacehariflours are over 16% and 80 cm respectively; coverage of carvex is less than 30% ,soil＇s conductivity is lower than 0.09 mS/cm,its temperature is between 16 - 19℃,and its humidity is specially lower：0.27 % -0.34%, the elevation of research area is higher than 15 m. the evaluated resuits agree with actual snail distribution well. It shows that the model presented may be applied better to prediction of snails breeding.

关 键 词：鄱阳湖 钉螺 敏感性分析 确定性系数 

分 类 号：R184.38[医药卫生—流行病学]