1955—2014年杭州极端气温和降水指数变化特征  

Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Index During 1955—2014 in Hangzhou

作　　者：梁晓妮[1] 雷俊 骆月珍[1] 马琰钢 沈萍月[1] 张青[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象服务中心,杭州310017 [2]德清县气象局,浙江德清313200

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2016年第3期68-74,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：浙江省科技厅重点公益技术研究社会发展项目(2014C23003)资助

摘　　要：根据杭州市1955—2014年降水量、气温逐日资料,采用国际通用的极端天气指数和线性倾向估计、MK检验等方法,分析了杭州市近60 a极端气温和降水的变化特征。结果表明:1)杭州市近60 a的气温呈一致升高趋势,且变化显著,表现为极端高温阈值和极端低温阈值的升高及极端高温日数的增多;极端冷事件显著减少,暖事件显著增多。2)极端降水指数中只有强降水量的增加较明显,主要贡献为夏季和冬季强降水量的增强。3)冬季平均气温、极端低温阈值、霜冻日数等极端冷事件的突变发生于20世纪80年代初中期,夏季平均气温、极端高温阈值、高温日数等极端暖事件的突变发生于20世纪末21世纪初,与全国范围内的气候增暖进程基本一致。另外,降水强度、极端降水阈值等极端降水指数的突变时间在2008年左右,即2008年后气温升高和降水强度的增加突变期叠加,尤其在夏季和冬季表现更突出,可能诱发更多的异常天气。Base on the daily temperature and precipitation data of Hangzhou from 1955 to 2014, u- sing the international general extreme weather index, the methods of linear trend estimation and Mann- Kendall test, the variation characteristics of extreme temperature and precipitation in Hangzhou in the past 60 years were analyzed. The results showed as followed. 1 ） The temperature in Hangzhou in the past 60 years showed a significant consistently increasing trend, register as the increase of extreme high tem- perature threshold, extreme low temperature threshold and days of extreme high temperature, extreme cold events significantly reduced and extreme warm events significantly increased. 2）The increase of heavy precipitation was obvious because of the enhancement in summer and winter during the extreme precipitation index. 3）There was a mutation of extreme cold events at the early and middle 1980s, including winter mean temperature, extreme low temperature threshold and frost days. There was a mutation of extreme warm events at the turn of 20th and 21st century, including summer mean temperature, threshold of extreme high temperature and extreme high temperature days. The mutations are basically identical with the nationwide climatic warming process. The mutation of precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation threshold was around 2008, which means that the mutation of temperature rising and precipitation intensity increasing were superimposition after 2008, especially outstanding in summer and winter, and more abnormal weather may be induced.

关 键 词：极端降水 极端气温 气候倾向率 M-K检验 杭州 

分 类 号：P468[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]