2016年上半年中国农产品贸易特点及展望  

Characteristic of China's Agricultural Products Trade in the First Half of 2016 and Its Prospect

作　　者：卢昱嘉 王萍萍[1] 姜楠[2] Lu Yujia Wang Pingping Jiang Nan(College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 Research Center for Rural Economy, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100810)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810

出　　处：《农业展望》2016年第9期61-64,70,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：基金项目:农业部农业农村资源监测国际农业研究体系(08162130111242022)

摘　　要：2016年上半年,全球主要农产品供需继续保持宽松格局,价格总体呈下行走势;国内农产品需求持续增长,粮食等农产品价格在供给侧结构性改革和价格支持政策转变的影响下有所下降。较大的国内外价差导致中国粮、棉、油、糖等大宗农产品进口保持高位,增速有所回升。发达国家经济缓慢复苏,对中国蔬菜和水产品出口形成有力支撑,水果出口同比增长,农产品出口额仍保持较高增速。综合考虑宏观经济走势、农产品供求状况、价格竞争力等因素,预计未来粮、棉、油、糖等大宗农产品全面净进口格局仍将持续,农产品出口形势或将有所好转。In the first half of 2016,the demand and supply of the global major agricultural products was sequentially loose and the whole price was in a downward trend.The domestic demand of agricultural products kept rising,and the prices of main agricultural products such as grain declined influenced by the structural reform of supply-side and policy change of price support.The imports of major agricultural products such as grain,cotton,oil and sugar were very large with increasing growth rate because of the big gap between domestic and international prices.As the developed countries＇ economics recovering slowly,China＇s vegetable and aquatic products exports were in a good state,fruits exports increased year on year and the export value of agricultural products remained at a high growth rate.After a comprehensive consideration of the macroeconomic trend,the supply and demand of agricultural products,price competitive power and other factors,the trade situation of bulk agricultural products such as grain,cotton,oil and sugar will keep net import and the situation of exports would be better.

关 键 词：农产品 贸易 价差 供需 展望 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.6