中国奶粉进口市场势力分析  

Import Market Power of China's Milk Powder

作　　者：韩啸[1] 余洁[1] 刘芳[2] 何忠伟[2] Han Xiao Yu Jie Liu Fang He Zhongwei(ICollege of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083 Beijing University of Agriculture, Beijing 102206)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]北京农学院,北京102206

出　　处：《农业展望》2016年第9期65-70,共6页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：2013年度国家自然科学基金面上项目(71373025);2014年度国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473019);北京市属高等学校高层次人才引进与培养计划项目(CIT&TCD20140314);现代奶牛产业技术体系北京市创新团队

摘　　要：选取2012年1月至2016年3月中国海关奶粉进口月度数据,使用进口市场定价(PTM)模型,对中国奶粉进口"大国效应"进行分析。结果表明,中国奶粉进口在美国和澳大利亚市场存在"大国效应",而在新西兰不存在市场势力。整体而言,国际奶粉市场是卖方市场,中国仍是国际奶粉价格接受者。国际金融市场和商品市场之间存在紧密联系,汇率是影响奶粉国际贸易的重要因素,人民币贬值与升值对中国奶粉进口价格影响程度一致。This article chose monthly imported milk powder data from the customs of China from Jan.2012 to Mar.2016,using the import pricing to marketing（PTM） model,analyzed the ＂Large Country Effect＂ of China＇s milk powder imports.The results showed that China＇s milk powder imports in the United States and Australia market existed ＂Large Country Effect＂,and there was no ＂market power＂ in New Zealand.As a whole,international milk powder market was the seller＇s market,and China was still the recipient of international milk powder price.There was close relationship between international financial markets and commodity markets.The exchange rate was the important factor influencing the international trade of milk powder,and China＇s currency depreciation and appreciation had almost the same influence on the import price of China＇s milk powder.

关 键 词：市场定价模型 进口奶粉 大国效应 

分 类 号：F426.82[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61