西南地区短期/长期综合干旱指数的构建与应用  

Development and Application of the Short-term/Long-term Composite Drought Index in the Southwestern China

作　　者：卢金利[1] 徐向红 王国平[1] 虞美秀 刘小龙[3] LU Jinli XU Xianghong WANG Guoping YU Meixiu LIU Xiaolong(Bureau of Taizhou Hydrology and Water Resources, Jiaojiang 317011, China Jiangsu Coast Development Group Limited Cooperation, Nanjing 210003, China Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China)

机构地区：[1]台州市水文站,浙江椒江317011 [2]江苏省沿海开发集团有限公司,江苏南京210003 [3]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《防灾减灾工程学报》2016年第4期681-688,共8页Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering

基　　金：中央高校科研经费项目(2014B04314);国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171220)资助

摘　　要：西南地区雨水充沛、气候湿润,但近年来,该地区严重干旱频发,造成了难以估量的经济和社会损失。干旱评估作为干旱灾害监测与防御的一个重要方面,如何准确评价并预测研究区域的旱情是当前研究的热点和难点。以西南地区南盘江小龙潭以上流域为研究区域,基于日降水、日蒸发、日均气温等水文气象资料,采用栅格化的新安江模型,对研究流域进行日尺度模拟,根据模型计算的栅格土壤含水量以及栅格产水量分别计算土壤相对湿度指数和标准化径流干旱指数,综合改进的帕默尔指数、帕默尔水文干旱指数、帕默尔水分距平指数、不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散发指数,利用主成分分析方法,分别研制基于新安江水文模型的短期/长期综合干旱指数并探讨了其在南盘江流域的适用性。结果表明:短期综合干旱指数和长期干旱指数均能很好识别并评价南盘江流域的历史干旱。该研究成果可为西南地区及其他地区建立和健全干旱监测与预警系统提供重要参考。Droughts are the world＇s most damaging and pressing natural disasters,causing tens of billions of dollars in global damages,and collectively affecting more people than any other form of devastating climate-related hazards.Due to the drought monitoring and prediction being an important step in the drought disaster management cycle,it is vital and necessary to choosing a suitable drought index for assessing drought conditions for China.To propose a composite drought index which could be applied widely over China,the Nanpanjiang River basin above the Xiaolongtan station was selected as the case study site.Based on the grid-based soil moisture and generated runoff obtained by running the Xin＇anjiang model,the soil moisture index and the standardized streamflow index were computed,then the short-term/long-term composite drought index was constructed by using the principal component analysis method with the self_calibrating Palmer drought index,Palmer hydrological index,ZIND,standardized precipitation evaportranspiration index,soil moisture index and the standardized streamflow index.Finally,the newly-developed composite drought index was applied in the Nanpanjiang River basin above the Xiaolongtan station to explore the feasibility and rationality of the drought index.The result revealed：the newly-developed short-term/long-term composite drought index has obtained very good achievement over Nanpanjiang River basin in China.

关 键 词：短期/长期 综合干旱指数 标准化径流指数 西南地区 

分 类 号：TU998.1[建筑科学—市政工程]