基于EMD的我国个人现金卫生支出增长趋势研究  

Research on the Increasing Trend of Individual Out-of-Pocket on Health Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition

作　　者：陆洲[1] 崔怡[1] 祁华男 杨义帆 丁敬美[2] 苏华[3] 尚磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]第四军医大学军事预防医学系卫生统计学教研室,西安710032 [2]第四军医大学军事预防医学系卫勤教研室,西安710032 [3]解放军理工大学野战工程学院,南京210000

出　　处：《中国卫生经济》2016年第11期29-31,共3页Chinese Health Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(81273175)

摘　　要：目的:探索经验模态分解(EMD)在个人现金卫生支出长期趋势分析中的适用性,为我国个人现金卫生支出增长规律及影响因素研究提供新的思路。方法:提取1978—2013年中华人民共和国统计年鉴中个人现金卫生支出环比增长数据,运用EMD法将时间序列分解为不同本征模函数(IMF)和残差(RES),计算不同IMF的方差贡献率及波动周期。结果:以个人现金卫生支出环比增长速度为原始序列,成功分解出了4个IMF和RES。各IMF及RES的方差贡献率依次为44.58%,23.82%,6.12%,11.98%和13.49%,各IMF波动周期分别为3.0年、5.0年、11.7年和23.3年,分解结果不存在明显的端点效应和模态混叠现象。结论:EMD方法适用于个人现金卫生支出时间序列分解,分解结果可为进一步的预测及影响因素研究提供了基础。Objective： To explore the applicability of empirical mode decomposition（EMD） in secular trend analysis of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure, and to provide new thought for predicting the tendency and evaluating the influence factors of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure. Methods： The ring growth data of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure from 1978 to 2013 were extracted from The People＇s Republic of China Statistical Yearbook. EMD was applied to decompose the time series into different intrinsic mode function（IMF） and residual error（RES） so as to calculate the variance contribution rate and the periods of waves for different IMF. Results： It successfully extracted 4 IMFs and 1 RES from the original time series, and the variance contribution rate for each 1MF and RES were 44.58%, 23.82%, 6.12%, 11.98% and 13.49% respectively. The fluctuation cycle of the 4 IMFs were 3 years, 5 years, 11.7 years and 23.3 years. There were no obvious end effect and mode mixing phenomenon in decomposition results. Conclusion： The EMD method could be applied in the secular trend study of individual out-of-pocket health expenditure. The decomposition results might provide basis for further prediction and the analysis for influencing factors.

关 键 词：个人卫生现金支出 经验模态分解法 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]