中国省级消费风险分担:测度、影响因素与福利效应  

Provincial Consumption Risk Sharing in China:Measurement,Influence Factors and Welfare Effect

作　　者：洪勇[1] HONG Yong(School of Economy and Management, Jiujiang University, Jiujiang 33200)

机构地区：[1]九江学院经济与管理学院,江西九江332005

出　　处：《财贸研究》2016年第5期10-18,共9页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"企业规模分布视域下的中部地区城市规模分布与产业圈层耦合机制研究"(13BJY047);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"中国制造业参与国际分工的代价测度:生态效率的视角"(15YJC790042)

摘　　要：基于1978—2013年中国省级面板数据,从消费增长与产出增长关系视角出发,测度中国省级消费风险分担水平,并进一步研究其影响因素和福利效应。结果显示:虽然中国省级消费风险分担水平相对偏低,但在研究的样本期内呈现出明显的上升趋势。资本市场整合、信贷市场发展、人均受教育水平、财政转移支付对消费风险分担具有积极的促进作用,其中,资本市场整合的作用力度最大;地方政府财政支出增长、服务业发展则会阻碍消费风险的分担。1978—2013年间,中国已实现的福利收益呈逐年上升之势,而潜在的福利收益则呈下降趋势。Based on provincial panel data from 1978 to 2013,this paper measures provincial consumption risk sharing in China and studies its influence factors and welfare effect from the viewof relationships of consumption growth and output growth. The results showthat although the level of consumption risk sharing is low,it shows a clear upward trend in the sample period. Capital market integration,credit market development,per capita level of education and financial transfer payment can promote the sharing level of consumption risk,among these factors,capital market integration is the most important factor. However,local government expenditure and service industry development will impede the sharing level of consumption risk.The realized welfare is on a upward trend,but the potential welfare shows a downward trend from 1978 to2013.

关 键 词：消费风险分担 资本市场整合 福利收益 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]