基于非对称Archimedean Copula的三变量洪水风险评估  

Risk assessment of trivariate flood based on asymmetric Archimedean Copulas

作　　者：陈子燊[1] 黄强[1] 刘曾美[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]华南理工大学水利水电系,广东广州510640

出　　处：《水科学进展》2016年第5期763-771,共9页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371498)~~

摘　　要：分析洪峰、洪量和历时三变量联合分布与风险概率及其设计分位数,为水利工程规划设计和风险评估提供参考依据。以珠江流域西江高要站52年洪水数据为例,采用非对称阿基米德M6 Copula函数与Kendall分布函数计算三变量洪水联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的设计分位数。结果表明:"或"重现期的风险率偏高,"且"重现期的风险率偏低,二次重现期更准确地反映了特定设计频率情况下三变量洪水要素遭遇的风险率;按三变量"或"重现期或三变量同频率设计值推算的洪水设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的三变量洪水要素的二次重现期设计值可为防洪工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。The joint distribution and the risk probabilities of three variables（ flood peak,flood volume and flood duration） were analyzed to provide reference for water conservancy project planning and risk assessments. Using the flood data of Gaoyao hydrologic station at Xijiang River in Pearl River basin as an example,the primary return periods and secondary return periods of trivariate flood joint distribution and the most likely design quantiles were computed by using the asymmetric Archimedean M6 Copula and the Kendall distribution function. The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows： comparing the risk probabilities of trivariate flood events among the different design flood return periods,the ‘OR＇primary return periods showed higher risk probabilities and the risk probability of‘AND＇primary return periods were lower,while the secondary return periods more accurately depicted the flood risk probability under specific design frequencies. The estimated flood design quantiles of the trivariate ‘OR＇ primary return periods and three variables with the same frequency were obviously higher than that of univariate floods. The most-likely design realization of the secondary return periods can serve as the new selection for the safety and risk management of flood control projects.

关 键 词：洪水风险评估 非对称Archimedean COPULA Kendall分布函数 二次重现期 三变量洪水要素设计值 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]