“一带一路”沿线国家对华对日贸易格局演变  

Change of Trade Pattern of Countries along the "Belt and Road" with China and Japan

作　　者：庞德良[1] 刘胜君[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究院

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2016年第6期36-45,125,共10页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(13BGJ012)

摘　　要："一带一路"战略是中国未来经济增长的重要支撑点,但中国主导的"一带一路"战略是否会受到邻国日本的影响。研究结果显示:第一,东北亚、东南亚和西亚三个地区与中日两国贸易比重显著大于其他地区,中日两国贸易竞争存在加剧的趋势,此外,中国仍然处于国际产业分工中的低端,仍未脱离早期以日本为核心的"雁行结构",日本在这些地区的影响力可能要超越中国;第二,中亚、南亚和中东欧国家对中日两国贸易规模整体偏低,但中国领先日本推出的"一带一路"战略有助于中国扩大在这些地区的影响;第三,"一带一路"范围内,中日互为最大贸易国,但中国对日贸易以劳动密集型的低技术产品为主,并呈贸易出超,短期中国仍需贸易带动经济增长的前提下,中国不能以牺牲与日本贸易为代价推动"一带一路"战略;第四,中国需要强化自主创新能力,打造核心技术,与日本在竞争中共同构筑稳定的国际分工体系。总体而言,中日两国在东北亚、东南亚和西亚各具优势,但中国不足在于缺少核心技术这一核心竞争力,在国际产业格局中仍受制于日本,因此在中国推动"一带一路"战略中也必然受到日本的影响。The 'Belt and Road' initiative is an important anchor of China's economic growth in the future. However, the potential impact from Japan is uncertain. According to the research of the paper, first, the trade share of Northeast, Southeast, and West Asian countries with China and Japan is significantly larger than other regions. The Sino-Japan trade competition is intensifying. Moreover, China is still in the low end of international division of labor and still stays in the 'flying geese structure' led by Japan who has a much stronger impact in those regions. Second, Central Asia, South Asia, and Central and Eastern European countries generally have a low trade volume with China and Japan, but the 'Belt and Road' initiative will help China to expand its influence in these regions. Third, China and Japan is the largest trading country with each other among countries along the 'Belt and Road' initiative. The majority of China's trade with Japan is labor-intensive low-tech products, with large volume of trade surplus. China still needs short-term trade-led economic growth. So the 'Belt and Road' initiative should not be implemented at the expense of China's Trade with Japan. Fourth, China needs to strengthen the capability of independent innovation, to build the core technology, working with Japan through competition to build a stable international division of labor. Overall, China and Japan have their own advantages in Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and West Asia. However, China is lack of core technology as core competitiveness. Thus the 'Belt and Road' initiative is also bound by the Japanese influence.

关 键 词：中国 日本 “一带一路” 国际贸易 东北亚 东南亚 

分 类 号：F114.4[经济管理—国际贸易]