基于供需影响的黄金价格分析与展望  

Analysis and prediction of gold price based on supply and demand

作　　者：张洪川[1] 张艺华 王建国[1] 张志炳[1] 卢杰[1] Zhang Hongchuan Zhang Yihua Wang Jianguo Zhang Zhibing Lu Jie(School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences （Beijing Department of Automotive Engineering, Sichuan Aerospace Vocational College)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(北京)地球科学与资源学院 [2]四川航天职业技术学院汽车工程系

出　　处：《黄金》2016年第10期5-10,共6页Gold

摘　　要：从黄金特性、黄金供需形势对黄金价格的影响进行了详细地分析,结果表明:在供给方面,生产成本上升,供给量有限;在需求方面,短期要关注风险,中期要关注全球货币实际利率,长期要关注中国黄金市场完善和建设。同时,提出了2016年的黄金市场投资策略,指出了黄金中期走强,把握政治事件和货币政策,关注黄金投资机会的建议。The paper elucidates the effect gold characteristics and gold supply and demand have on gold prices. It concludes that the production cost of the supply side rises,which constrains supply; as for the demand side,it is necessary to pay attention to risks in the short term,effective interest rate of international currency in the medium term,and development of Chinese gold market in the long term. At the same time,the paper puts forward the investment policy of gold market in 2016,points out that gold will rise in the medium term,and advise that political events and monetary policy be followed as well as gold investment opportunities.

关 键 词：黄金价格 黄金投资 需求 供给 

分 类 号：TD15[矿业工程—矿山地质测量] F830.94[经济管理—金融学]