基于云模型和不确定AHP的列控运营安全评估  

Evaluation of Chinese Train Control System Operational Safety Based on Cloud Model and Uncertain Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：郭荣昌[1,2] 陈光武[1,2] 赵小娟[1,2] 火久元[3] 范多旺[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学自动控制研究所,甘肃兰州730070 [2]兰州交通大学甘肃省高原交通信息工程及控制重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [3]兰州交通大学电子与信息工程学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《铁道学报》2016年第11期69-74,共6页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61462058)

摘　　要：为了改进现有的列控运营安全评估方法的不足,科学客观的评价列控运营安全等级,考虑到列控运营安全的模糊性和随机性,提出了基于云模型和不确定AHP的列控运营安全评估方法。该方法首先建立了列控运营安全评估指标体系;其次采用不确定AHP计算评估指标体系的权重区间,利用集对分析理论将权重区间转化为权重精确值;之后给出了安全标准云模型和综合云模型的计算方法,然后给出了依据云相似度来确定运营安全等级的方法。最后,通过一个实例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。To improve the existing assessment methods of the operational safety of the Chinese train control system and to obtain a scientific and objective evaluation of the operational safety level of the system , based on the fuzziness and randomness of the operational safety of the system, a method based on cloud model and uncertain analytic hierarchy process was proposed. Firstly, the evaluation index system for the operational safety of the Chinese train control system was established before the uncertain analytic hierarchy process was adopted to determine the weight interval of assessment indicators. The set pair analysis method was adopted to convert the weight interval of assessment indicators into the precise weight value. Then the method to calculate the standard cloud model and comprehensive evaluation cloud model was given. A method to determine the level of operational safety of the Chinese train control system based on cloud similarity was presented. Finally, an example was given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the method.

关 键 词：列车运行控制 运营安全 云模型 不确定AHP 

分 类 号：U284[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制] X913.4[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]