我国粮食进口增长的风险后果及对策分析  

The Risky Consequences of China's Grain Import Increase and the Countermeasures

作　　者：王锐[1] 祁华清[1] 陈倬[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉轻工大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430023

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2016年第11期50-54,共5页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学青年项目(14CJY081);国家粮食公益性行业科研专项(201413002-2);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403199)

摘　　要：2003年以来,我国粮食进口不断增长且态势迅猛,表现出几个新特征:总体已稳居净进口地位;主要粮食品种全面净进口;在国际粮价高企中进口逆势增长;不同品种进口依存度存在差别。随着国内供需缺口继续扩大,未来我国粮食进口仍将保持增势。粮食进口持续增长的现状与趋势,将给我国粮食市场带来相关的风险,具体包括:粮食价格波动加剧风险;产业安全与冲击风险;农民收入波动风险;转基因进口的环境压力风险等。为规避这些已经显现或者极有可能的风险,我国需要关注以下几个方面:完善粮食信息预警系统;进口差异化与适度保护;进口与对外投资相配套;完善期货市场;加大农业定向支持特别是农民收入支持。Since 2003,China ＇s grain imports have been growing rapidly which have shown several new features,including： the overall net import position has been stable; imports are growing with the international grain prices increase; the import dependences of different varieties are different. With the expansion of the domestic supply and demand gap , in futur , the grain import of China will still maintain its increas ing trend. All these will bring associated risks to China＇s grain market. Specifically, these risks could be： volatility risks of domestic grain price ; risks of industry safety ; fluctuation risks of farmers ＇ income and the environmental risks of genetically modified grain imports. To avoid these revealed or potential risks, we should focus on the following aspects： improving the warning system of grain in formation, especially of the grain imports ; Differentiating imports and offering moderate trade protection; coordinately developing grain imports and overseas investment ; improving the futures market of grain; increasing directional agricultural support ,especially on farmers ＇ income.

关 键 词：粮食进口增长 风险 对策 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61