基于德尔菲法的围填海对海洋资源影响指标体系研究  

Indicator system for the impact of reclamation on marine resources using the Delphi method

作　　者：胡聪[1] 尤再进[1] 毛海英[1] HU Cong YOU Zai-jin MAO Hai-ying(College of Civil Engineering, Certre for Ports and Coastal Natural Disaster Prevention Disaster and Mitigationy, Ludong University, Yantai 264000, Chin)

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学土木工程学院港口海岸工程研究中心,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《海洋科学》2016年第8期150-156,共7页Marine Sciences

基　　金：国家海洋局海洋能专项(GHME2014ZC01);鲁东大学科研基金(LY2015020)~~

摘　　要：为了拓展发展空间,围填海已经成为沿海国家海洋开发活动的重大举措,围填海带来巨大的社会和经济效益的同时,对海洋资源会产生许多不利影响,要确定围填海对海洋资源影响程度,急需采用适宜的评价指标体系。分析了受围填海开发活动影响的海洋资源及其影响程度评价指标和权重的确定方法,构建了用于评价围填海开发活动对海洋资源产生影响程度的层次结构指标体系。利用德尔菲法通过三轮专家咨询给出了影响评价指标的权重。研究结果表明:围填海开发活动影响的海洋资源可划分为港航资源、旅游资源、渔业资源、空间资源和其他资源5个方面,在20个评价指标中,浅海滩涂损失率、自然岸线损失比例和珍稀物种资源损失价值的权重较大,陆域空间利用率、人工岸线增加比例、游客增长率、旅游开发投资和海域使用金的权重较小。Reclamation is an important measure for development activities in coastal states as it increases available construction space. Although reclamation can bring great social and economic benefits, it is harmful to ma-rine resources. Therefore, we urgently need appropriate evaluation indicators to determine its impact on ma-rine resources. This paper analyzes the types of marine resource, compares the methods used to evaluate the impact of reclamation on marine resources and indicator weights, and proposes an evaluation indicator system. Marine resources under the effects of reclamation are divided into port, tourism, fisheries, and spatial resources. Using the Delphi method, the weight values of 20 indicators, based on 3 rounds of expert investigation results, were obtained. The results demonstrates that the weightings of beach loss rate, proportion of natural coastline, and annual output changes in benthic mussels are large, while the weightings of land space utilization, proportion of artificial coastline, reclamation income per unit area, and expropriation value of sea areas are small.

关 键 词：德尔菲法 围填海 海洋资源 

分 类 号：TV92[水利工程—水利水电工程]