新疆艾滋病发病率的组合预测模型研究  

Study on the Combined Forecasting Model of the Incidence of AIDS in Xinjiang

作　　者：郑彦玲[1] 张利萍[1] 丁丽丽[2] 张学良[1] ZHENG Yan-ling ZHANG Li-ping DING Li-li ZHANG Xue-liang(, College of Engineering, Xinjiang medical university, Urumqi 830011, China Department of infection management, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830054, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]新疆医科大学第一附属医院感染管理科,新疆乌鲁木齐830054

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2016年第21期120-126,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11461073);新疆自治区自然科学基金(2015211C024;2014211C014);新疆医科大学校内支撑学科-卫生计量与卫生经济学项目(XYDXK50780308)

摘　　要：近年来新疆艾滋病发病率较高,预防控制工作严峻,此种情况下,基于2008年1月至2014年12月的艾滋病发病率数据,采用ARIMA方法及广义回归神经网络方法建立了ARIMA-GRNN组合预测模型,并用2015年1月至5月的数据检验模型预测能力,结果模型能较好地对新疆艾滋病发病率做预测,这可为新疆艾滋病的预防控制提供一定的科学参考.In recent years, the incidence of AIDS in Xinjiang is high, so, there is a tough situation to prevent and control it. Based on the data from January 2008 to December 2014, this paper used ARIMA method and GRNN method established ARIMA-GRNN combination forecasting model, and using the data from January to May 2015 tested the model predictive ability. Result, the model can be used to forecast incidence of AIDS, which can provide some scientific reference for the prevention and control of AIDS in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：新疆 艾滋病 ARIMA-GRNN组合预测模型 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]