军队安全管理中的脆性风险分析及其评估方法  

Brittle Risk Analysis and Evaluation in Military Safety Management

作　　者：许勇[1] 汪禹喆 鹿传国[3] 毕凯 XU Yong WANG Yu-zhe LU Chuan-guo BI Kai(Air Defense and Anti-missile Institute, Air Force Engineering University, Xi＇an 710051, China Unit 95545, Chengdu 610200, China Unit 95806, Beijing 100076, China Unit 93293, Shenyang 110000, China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学防空反导学院 [2]95545部队 [3]95806部队 [4]93293部队

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2016年第21期180-193,共14页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(16QJ003-079)

摘　　要：安全管理作为部队日常管理的重要职能,对维持部队安全稳定具有重要作用.为全面分析其可能面临的风险威胁,促进军队安全管理模式转型,在分析军队安全事故的基础上,提出了基于脆性风险熵的安全管理脆性风险分析及评估方法.结合脆性传递原理,提出了安全管理对象间基于不同脆性关系和风险事件相关性的脆性概率计算方法;按照安全事故的分类原则,量化确定了军队管理对象的风险等级,并结合直觉模糊集的基本原理提出了相应的脆性风险量化方法.最后以某部某次危险品输送任务为例进行说明,梳理任务各执行阶段中的脆性传递关系及触发过程,并通过分析各管理对象的脆性风险熵及其脆性风险值变化验证脆性变化的基本规律,结果表明,其变化趋势满足安全管理对风险触发过程的认知.Military Safety Management （MSM）, which is considered as a critical function of Military Management, plays an important role in keeping security and stability of Army, In order to find out the brittle risk to MSM and promote the transformation of Safety Man- agement Pattern, this paper proposes the brittle risk analysis and evaluation method with Brittleness Risk Entropy based on the Safety Accident （sA） of MSM. Afterwards, with on basis of Brittleness Delivering principles and the correlation of risk events, the calculating method of brittle probability in different brittleness relationships is put forward, with the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets and principles of SA classification, it provides a computing method of brittle risk estimation which concludes three kinds of evaluation indicator and eight risk levels. Though decomposition and analysis of the hazmat transportation task, the last part identifies the brittleness relationships in different mission steps, and then calculates the brittle parameters in three major stages. With value changes of BRE and Brittle Risk, it verifies the basic regularity in familiar process, which also proves the consistency between the brittleness evolutionary trend and the risk change in MSM.

关 键 词：军队安全管理 脆性 脆性风险 风险评估 

分 类 号：E23[军事—军事理论]