基于Kendall与R/S法的年最大洪峰流量变化特性分析  

Research on Variation Characteristics of Annual Maximum Peak Discharge Based on Kendall and Rescaled Range Analyses

作　　者：金保明[1] 高兰兰[1] 颜望栋 

机构地区：[1]福州大学土木工程学院,福建福州350116

出　　处：《水力发电》2016年第11期20-23,共4页Water Power

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2016J01734)

摘　　要：应用线性回归法、Kendall秩次相关检验法等方法分析年最大洪峰流量序列总体变化趋势,根据重标极差R/S法求出年最大洪峰流量序列的变异点并划分序列,采用Kendall秩次相关检验法或线性回归法分析每段序列变化趋势,并根据R/S法分析每段序列的持续性特征,以两者的结果综合分析序列未来的变化特性。以闽江十里庵站年最大洪峰流量序列为例进行的分析表明,Kendall与R/S法应用于年最大洪峰流量变化特性分析可行,可以为流域汛前防汛备汛工作提供参考。The Linear Regression method, Kendall Relevant Test of Order method and other methods are applied in analyzing overall variation trend of annual maximum peak discharge series. Firstly, the variation point of annual maximum peak discharge series is ascertained by Rescaled Range Analysis （R/S） and they are divided into several sequence. Then the Kendall Relevant Test of Order method or Linear Regression method is applied in analyzing variation trend of each sequence and the characteristics of duration of each sequence are analyzed by R/S method. Finally, the future variation characteristics of sequence are analyzed by synthesizing both of the results. The variation characteristics of annual maximum peak discharge series of Shill＇an Hydrologic Gauging Station in Minjiang River are investigated as an example. The results show that the Kendall and R/S methods are feasible when they are applied in variation characteristics analysis of annual maximum peak discharge series and the results could be provided as reference for flood control of watershed.

关 键 词：年最大洪峰流量 变化特性 Kendall法 R/S法 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]